By Jonathan Lidskin
It’s a new age of Missouri Valley Basketball. Last season the conference was in the national spotlight with its’ darling teams, players and coaches. Indiana State came into people’s hearts with Robbie Avila and its’ electric offense. Drake was steady as always as Tucker DeVries won the Larry Bird Trophy yet again. Bradley competed at a high level with its’ stout defense under Brian Wardle. The conference nearly got multiple NCAA Tournament bids and Indiana State was the runner-up in the NIT. However, much of what made the conference pop last year is gone.
As they say, when one door closes, another one opens. The Missouri Valley will epitomize that saying this year with new coaches and players taking center stage. Plus, a legendary MVC team plays its last year in the league under a coach they know very well. Before we get to the team breakdowns, I want to specify that this is a power ranking projection and not a prediction of the conference standings due to the unbalanced scheduling. So… without further ado, let’s get to my power rankings for the 2024-25 Missouri Valley Basketball season.
1) Bradley
An off-season ago, Brian Wardle lost his best player (as well as other key players) and the team improved substantially. This season, the Braves will face a similar challenge with Malevy Leons headed to the professional ranks. Last season’s best defender in the conference was a huge reason that Bradley could stay close to the top of the conference. The loss of Connor Hickman though, will also be tough to get through. Hickman was an elite shooter who could also play multiple guard spots very well. However, Bradley still returns more important players than anyone in the conference.
Duke Deen was named Preseason Player of the Year at Media Day. Deen, while small, is a high-volume shooter who has also proved himself as a good distributor. Look for Darius Hannah to be the Malevy Leons “replacement”. While Hannah’s instincts defensively aren’t as good as Leons, Hannah is more athletic which allows him to be a better finisher at the rim and a slightly better rim protector.
What is so intriguing about Bradley is again their defense and their depth. The Braves filled out their roster with returning role players and quality transfers. Almar Atlason and Demarion Burch both had quality freshmen seasons with Atlason starting 19 games. Atlason shot 40% from three and showed potential offensively. Atlason actually reminded me at points of Rienk Mast. Burch proved to be an efficient shooter as well in limited minutes but also displayed an ability to get to the rim. Christian Davis is also a solid defender off the bench who returns and will play.
Bradley also brings back Zek Montgomery who was a starter on the team that won the regular season title two years ago. In my eyes, there are two wildcards for this team: Connor Dillon (Winona State) and Corey Thomas (Cowley Community College). Dillon will likely be a good secondary scoring option that can stretch the floor. He is a wing that knows how to pick his spots and despite shooting left-handed he is better going right. However, I wouldn’t expect him to be able to defend at a high level against Missouri Valley talent. For Thomas, the obstacle he has to overcome is being able to play in structure. From the film, he was playing in games with a lot of high-level athletes, but there wasn’t a lot of team basketball being played. Bradley is a team that typically plays slower so if he doesn’t start from the first game, it is likely because he is getting used to the system and not because of his talent level.
Season Expectations:
I expect the Braves to be a well-oiled machine from the get-go. They have a lot of returning players not just in this league, but in college basketball as a whole. Even without Malevy Leons this team should still be solid defensively with how well Brian Wardle coaches on that end. They also have a chance to be better offensively than they were a season ago. The nature of the MVC says they won’t win the league comfortably (if they do win it), but they are the rightful favorites heading into this season.
Team Awards:
MVP: Duke Deen
Most Improved: Almar Atlason
Best Defender: Darius Hannah
Best Newcomer: Connor Dillon
Starting Lineup Prediction: Duke Deen, Connor Dillon, Zek Montgomery, Darius Hannah, Corey Thomas
Bold Prediction: Bradley will enter 2025 with just one loss, meaning they will win 2/3 against Washington State, Santa Clara and San Francisco.
2) Northern Iowa
Here’s one of the least shocking things you’ll hear headed into the college basketball season: Ben Jacobson has put together a quality roster. Now in his 19th season, Northern Iowa is trying to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016. The Panthers, like Bradley, return a handful of key pieces from last year’s team that finished in 4th in the conference and while they have to overcome the loss of Nate Heise and Bowen Born, there’s plenty of reason to be excited about the replacements.
Let’s start with what we know. There’s a very real chance that Tytan Anderson is the single most impactful player in the conference. One thing you can look at from last year is that whenever UNI got a big win, it correlated with a big game from Anderson. He had 19 points and 19 rebounds in the Arch Madness Quarterfinal against Belmont and also had 18 and 18 in the Panthers’ biggest win of the regular season over Drake. I don’t know if Anderson will have the counting stats to win Player of the Year in the league, but he’s the guy I am most confident will be on the first team.
The other (key) returners for the Panthers are Jacob Hutson, Trey Campbell, RJ Taylor and Kyle Pock. Hutson and Campbell were both starters on last year’s team and are positioned to be in similar roles this season. We’ll start with Hutson who to me, is one of the more underrated players in the conference. Hutson’s per 40 averages last season were phenomenal, but UNI had the benefit of having a solid offensive backup in Cole Henry. This season that is more of a question mark with Chase Courbat being unproven, so I’d be willing to bet that Hutson’s 56.1 minutes% goes up this season and we see some better numbers as a result. We know that Hutson was really efficient on the offensive end, but the question I have is can he be out there longer and still be an effective defender because last year, UNI’s rim protection tanked when he was off the floor in favor of Henry. For that reason, the Panthers will need more mileage out of him this season.
Trey Campbell to me is the most interesting returner on this team because his role will likely be different than last year. Campbell was just a sophomore last year and was super efficient on both ends. What’s so interesting about his role this year is I expect to see him playing at the point way more. His usage rate will skyrocket by default of Bowen Born being gone and playing more point guard, but I do have questions about Campbell’s ability to make plays for his teammates as a point guard. However, UNI was alright last year with Born playing the one and he wasn’t a super-skilled passer either. Campbell could be a Connor Hickman prototype if his scoring increases this year. The two already have very similar skill sets.
Where UNI can win this league is if their depth and transfers pop. The margins between Bradley and UNI are very thin, but UNI can get that bump to #1 depending on what they get out of their sophomores, especially Max Weisbrod and Leon Bond. Weisbrod, a D2 transfer out of Northern Michigan, is a sharpshooter. He shot 39% on high volume last season and while he won’t be a guy that attacks the rim with a ton of success, his 83 threes that he hit last season were substantially more than anyone on UNI. Bond was brought in for a different reason than Weisbrod, but he’ll help their team by giving them athleticism and a guy who is great in the open floor. I would expect the Panthers to try to push the ball a little more with Bond in the game.
Season Expectations:
The Panthers finished 111th in KenPom last year and I think there is a very real chance that they improve on that for this season. At the very worst, without injuries, Ben Jacobson will have a very formidable team that can win the whole thing in St. Louis. The roster has reliable returners who have played in a lot of big games as well as some younger guys that can elevate the team to be the best in the league. I toyed with picking Jacobson’s team to win the league but ultimately had a little less confidence in the dependability of the point guard spot. If Trey Campbell can prove to play that position at a high level, the Panthers could very well be playing the opening game on Friday at Enterprise.
Team Awards:
MVP: Tytan Anderson
Most Improved: Trey Campbell
Best Defender: Tytan Anderson
Best Newcomer: Max Weisbrod
Projected Starters: Trey Campbell, Max Weisbrod, Leon Bond, Tytan Anderson, Jacob Hutson
Bold Prediction: Northern Iowa will boast the best defense in the Missouri Valley and will have a top 65 defense in the country.
3) Drake
I have some bad news. All you Valley fans who are tired of Drake’s success, it’s not going away. At least not entirely. This is my first sort of “out there” prediction for my conference power rankings, but I think the Bulldogs had a tremendous off-season.
Let’s first address that they nailed the hire. Ben McCollum is a pure winner. He leaves Northwest Missouri State with a 394-91 record, 10 straight 25-win seasons, five Division ll Coach of the Year awards and four national titles. Many will think that McCollum has his hands full with all of the new players, but there’s actually more roster continuity than one would think.
I want to first address one of the only two returners for this team. In this era of college basketball, when your coach and all of the guys you’ve played with around you leave, it is really tough not to find a new place yourself. Nate Ferguson on the other hand opted to stay at Drake and play for McCollum for his senior season. Ferguson is not a stat sheet stuffer, but he brings great energy and is a leader that can help the program this year. It’s a plus to have him around after all of the winning he has done in this league.
The reason I am excited about Drake is the combination of the coach and the players he brought in. Four of McCollum’s players from NWMSU will make a big impact on this team and all of them know the system very well. Bennett Stirtz, Isaiah Jackson, Daniel Abreu and Mitch Mascari all play different positions and do different things, but I love it when coaches bring in guys who have played for them because they know these guys are good enough to move up.
Stirtz is an intriguing player at 6’4 playing the point. His athletic traits aren’t great, but he’s a smart player who can play in ball screens, pass and put a little pressure on teams from deep if he is open. One thing that people will see this year with McCollum’s offense is it looks like a variant of Josh Schertz’s offense. There is a lot of movement, an emphasis on spacing, you get a lot of actions run through a passing big at the top of the key including dribble handoffs and pick-and-pop action.
The last point especially is where Daniel Abreu comes in. Abreu is 6’6 and played the five at NWMSU last season, but will likely play the four at Drake as he is not a superb rebounder. However, I would expect him to be in a similar role offensively that way McCollum can play him and Cam Manyawu together. Abreu isn’t going to have high assist numbers like Robbie Avila last season for instance, but he will be a good initiator of offense and is more than enough of a shooting threat to make defenders respect him.
The final NWMSU piece that I am intrigued by is Isaiah Jackson. Mascari himself is more of a guy who will come off the bench and be a guy who can space the floor vs. a high-impact guy, but Jackson will be. To me, the most important thing for Jackson this off-season was developing a consistent jumper. Jackson hit 16 threes last season, but especially in the midrange he didn’t look confident enough to shoot anything off of the dribble. However, Jackson does everything else on an above-average level which will earn him adequate minutes. He’s a great defender (both on and off the ball), is a fantastic passer, rebounds the ball really well for his size and attacks the basket fearlessly. If he can consistently dribble into a 15-foot pull-up, he could be one of the most valuable players on this team.
The NWMSU guys are not the only continuity group on this roster. McCollum took two players from Wyoming who I am very excited for. Let’s start with Cam Manyawu who, to put it bluntly, how much Wyoming played him last year was malpractice. You can argue the same thing about Kael Combs who I’ll get into in a second. Manyawu’s athleticism at 6’9 combined with his effort level can catapult him into one of the best players in the conference as a sophomore. As a freshman last year in conference play, Manyawu had a true shooting% of 64.9 and the second-best offensive and defensive rebounding% in the entire conference. If he can add to his game, he will be a player of the year candidate in the Missouri Valley.
The other Wyoming addition, Kael Combs, in my opinion, should be the starting point guard for the Bulldogs. Combs, like Manyawu, was also a freshman last season and got better as the season went on. Combs posted an assist rate of over 20% in conference play and generally speaking, the numbers got better as the competition got harder. He was in a very limited role last season, but moving down a league into McCollum’s system should benefit him greatly.
My question for this team is depth and how these guys scale up. What kind of contributions do they get from the freshmen? I am a fan of Isaia Howard and think he could end up being a starter for this team at some point. He played at a very small high school though and will need to be able to adjust to the speed of college basketball. In my opinion, the combination of athleticism and shooting as well as defensive instincts gives him a chance to be a freshman of the year candidate in the league.
Eli Shetlar will also be an important piece for this team and I think his shooting ability gives him a chance to start and get important minutes for this team. Shetlar played last season at Indiana State so he is a fit for this system. According to what I have heard and read he has been great in practice.
Season Expectations:
Drake has a lot of players and coaches who will be experiencing a different talent level than what they have previously. However, it is hard to ignore that much success from both McCollum and the players from NWMSU that he brought with him. I’m willing to bet on the talent evaluations that McCollum has obviously been good at for a long time and his offense getting this team to mesh. This team has a pretty wide range of outcomes, but I am always a fan of teams that have good process and this Drake off-season was just that. The Bulldogs will be a threat in this league.
Team Awards:
MVP: Cam Manyawu
Most Improved: Kael Combs
Best Defender: Isaiah Jackson
Best Newcomer: Cam Manyawu
Projected Starters: Kael Combs, Bennett Stirtz, Eli Shetlar, Daniel Abreu, Cam Manyawu
Bold Prediction: Ben McCollum has won 20 games in 13 straight seasons. That will extend to 14 before the postseason begins.
4) Murray State
I’m not usually the one defending Steve Prohm with my life, but there’s no questioning the talent on this team. You could even go as far as saying they have the best talent in the league. Between the guys coming back and the transfers, there’s no doubt that Murray State should improve this season.
Every discussion for the Racers starts in the backcourt which could easily be the best in the league. JaCobi Wood is destined for higher usage and likely All-Conference recognition this season, but his backcourt mates could also earn those honors. The key for Wood this season is cutting down on turnovers. His assist rate was very high last season (>21%), but he needs to take better care of the ball if he wants to be the best point guard in the league.
Wood will share the backcourt with three transfers in Terence Harcum, Kylen Milton and A.J. Ferguson from Appalachian State, Arkansas Pine-Bluff and Southern Illinois. Milton was a big-time scorer last season but on a very bad team. He was efficient to go along with his productivity and the underlying do not at all indicate that he was the problem at Pine-Bluff.
Harcum is a little different as he is more of a two-way player coming from an Appalachian State program that preaches defense. I wouldn’t expect his numbers to be as good as Wood and Milton, but he could still definitely average double figures and will impact the game in other ways.
Finally, Ferguson is a guy who can score off the bench for you, but the most important thing about him is that he knows the league. He is not a great defender, but he’s been in the league for multiple years at Southern Illinois and can give you some rim pressure off the bench. Overall, this is a very experienced group.
The frontcourt for Prohm’s group can make or break the season. More specifically, the center spot is the biggest question mark. Nick Ellington is poised to be one of the best bigs in the league even at his size, but what do you get out of Texas Tech transfer KyeRon Lindsay? I don’t want to gloss over Ellington as I would expect him to make All-Conference. His two-way impact is phenomenal as he blocks a ton of shots for a guy that is just 6’7. On the offensive end, he’s a force in the post that shoots an extremely high percentage near the rim.
As I said above, how KyeRon Lindsay works in this team is crucial to their success. Lindsay had a really nice freshman season at Georgia before transferring. At 6’8 he is also undersized for his position but has been a good rebounder in the past. I will be very interested to see if Prohm plays the two together at all or simply rolls with Ellington at the five and uses Lindsay as a backup.
I also have more confidence in Murray State’s bench than a lot of other teams in the league because of what they were able to retain. In this day and age of college basketball, it’s tough to convince guys who don’t play much or really at all to come back, but that’s exactly what Murray State did. Alden Applewhite, Patrick Chew and Justin Morgan all return as potential key pieces off the bench. These are guys who don’t have to learn a new system coming in and understand their roles right away. The former could be big in non-conference while other teams are still figuring out a lot of things.
Murray State’s depth did take a bit of a hit on Monday when it was announced that Lawrent Rice was no longer with the program. Rice was booked for dating violence, strangulation and criminal mischief. Rice was likely to be a significant contributor in a possible backup point guard role.
Season Expectations:
This might be the toughest team in the conference to really grasp what their expectations should be. We know that Prohm does a really good job acquiring talent, but so far in the move from the OVC to the MVC, it hasn’t translated into a ton of wins. Don’t get me wrong, the Racers have been far from bad, but it does feel like Murray State has some catching up to do. If I was a Murray State fan, my expectation would be to win the league or at least be one of the top teams. I lean more toward that latter part and think the Racers should be expected to be in the mix and get a bye in Arch Madness.
Team Awards:
MVP: JaCobi Wood
Most Improved: KyeRon Lindsay
Best Defender: Justin Morgan
Best Newcomer: Kylen Milton
Projected Starters: JaCobi Wood, Terence Harcum, Kylen Milton, AJ Ferguson, Nick Ellington
Bold Prediction: Murray State will beat Nebraska and then beat Hawai’i or Charlotte to grab at least two wins in the Diamond Head Classic and play in the championship game.
5) Illinois State
After finishing 7th in the Missouri Valley last season, Year Three of the Ryan Pedon era feels like it could be a turning point. The Redbirds have plenty of young and growing pieces to get excited about and despite what they lost, they found replacements that in some cases can improve on what they had last year. Although it might be a slow start with Johnny Kinziger recovering from an injury, I have confidence that the Redbirds will get it figured out with a super-experienced team.
It’s only right that we start with the Kinziger. The now sophomore who broke out in the second half of the season has the preseason spotlight on a team with tons of older players. Illinois State’s best stretch of conference play last season came as a result of the Kinziger breakout in which the Redbirds won four of five. In the four wins, Kinziger had 31 at Indiana State, 18 vs. Evansville, 21 vs. Northern Iowa and 20 vs. Missouri State. While Kinziger’s usage is going to go up notably, he proved last season that he can rise to a higher level of competition. Him getting healthy soon is important for how the Redbirds’ non-conference slate.
Although he is not as good as Myles Foster, Boden Skunberg will be Pedon’s defacto replacement in that role. I would expect Skunberg to improve his efficiency as he won’t be taking 26% of the team’s shots when on the floor this season, but what will translate is his rebounding rate. Skunberg was nationally ranked in defensive rebounding and they’ll need him to do that again to replace not just Foster, but Kendall Lewis as well. Skunberg was hurt in the Redbirds’ exhibition, so he also needs to get healthy for ISU to start the season on the right foot.
Elsewhere on the roster, Caden Boser makes his return to Division l after two seasons at Valdosta State. Boser played for UMKC for two seasons before moving down a level where he performed much better. I don’t expect the numbers to be eye-popping for Boser, but he is a sniper who hit 50+ threes in each of his two seasons at Valdosta and shot above 40% from range. We’ll see if he’s better at this level now that he has more experience.
To me, Illinois State’s season comes down to the center position and can they figure out shooting on the wings. Brandon Lieb is a veteran and Chase Walker could be somewhat of a breakout guy, but neither of them played very much last year and Lieb needs to stay healthy. Walker is the better athlete of the two which I would bet gives him a better chance to play more minutes throughout the season regardless of whether he starts or not.
At the wings/guards spots, Illinois State returns a couple of role players in Malachi Poindexter, Dalton Banks and Jordan Davis but none of them are shooters. To me, Landon Wolf is the X-Factor for this group. I don’t know if he’ll start, but I would expect him to be in their closing lineups and play a lot. His minutes were cut last season at Northern Iowa after a good freshman season so there’s potential with him. Also, watch out for Ty Pence to make an impact. Pence is a sophomore who looked good in the Redbirds’ scrimmage this past weekend and is a good athlete.
Season Expectations:
Every team in the conference has some question marks, but after the first couple of teams is when you wonder if those questions won’t have answers and turn into problems. Illinois State needs someone in the front court to step up. The Redbirds are not going to be a team that has great individual isolation scorers so spacing and passing are going to be important. If Illinois State does not have a guy inside that can be a threat on the offensive end, that’s going to make guarding their perimeter threats much tougher. Regardless, Pedon got last year’s team to jump 100 spots in KenPom and this roster is certainly far from the worst in the league. The Redbirds should be in the mix for a bye late in the season.
Team Awards:
MVP: Johnny Kinziger
Most Improved: Ty Pence
Best Defender: Ty Pence
Best Newcomer: Boden Skunberg
Projected Starters: Johnny Kinziger, Dalton Banks, Malachi Poindexter, Boden Skunberg, Chase Walker
Bold Prediction: Landon Wolf breaks out as a junior. By mid-season, Wolf will be starting and he will finish third on the team in scoring behind just Kinziger and Skunberg.
6) Belmont
Casey Alexander came on Brackets, Bubbles and Bid Stealers last year just before the end of the regular season, and with the way Belmont was playing, Sam Federman and I both thought they had a chance to win Arch Madness. Unfortunately for Alexander’s squad, Northern Iowa caught the Bruins on a bad day and knocked them out in the quarterfinals. This season, after losing Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Cade Tyson, Malik Dia Jayce Willingham and Keishawn Davidson, Alexander had the task of replacing all five of his starters. While that might seem like a near-impossible task especially with three of those guys moving up to high majors, Alexander has won 20 games in eight consecutive seasons so I would be completely shocked if this went sideways for Belmont.
So with the starters from last season gone, the question for Belmont becomes who can they rely on? The Bruins have always done well developing internally and while that will play a role in this team’s success (or potentially lack thereof), it’s the transfer class that to me stands out. Let’s begin with Jonathan Pierre who after a season at Memphis where he didn’t see much run, could be due for a major bounce-back year. Pierre has a complete offensive skillset that could be on display at a lower level. He was one of the best Division ll players in the country in 2022-23 at Nova Southeastern and I believe a lot of his game is translatable. If you want a longshot for the Larry Bird Award, look no further than Pierre.
The two transfer guards are also an intriguing part of this team. Replacing Gillespie and Davidson is tough, but getting Carter Whitt from Furman and Brody Peebles from Liberty gives the Bruins some real experience. Both guys have been around the block in leagues similar to the Valley and both have been a part of winning in the past. While not an exceptional shooter, Whitt is a good floor general who should see his role expanded at Belmont now that he’s not sitting behind JP Pegues. Peebles should definitely be more of a scoring threat and while he’s also not a great shooter, he does a good job getting to the rim where he took 42% of his shots a season ago. Those two should make up the starting backcourt for Casey Alexander.
I said internal development would be a part of this as well and it certainly is. Isaiah Walker, Brigham Rogers, Win Miller and a couple of others will contribute for the Bruins. Of these guys, I expect Rogers to make the biggest impact this season. I think you’ll see some natural freshman-to-sophomore progression with him and last season I was impressed with the energy he brought even if the numbers weren’t always pretty. I think you can count on him being the starting center on the opening night of the season.
The biggest question mark to me with this Belmont team is shooting. The Bruins had a ton of it last year, but who for them this year is going to hit outside shots? Will it be Richmond transfer Aidan Noyes in a bigger role than I imagine? Do Walker or any of the other transfers take a leap? Cooper Haynes might be a factor off the bench because of his ability to knock down shots. At Briarcrest Christian Academy as a senior, Haynes shot 45% from three.
Season Expectations:
Belmont is a team that no matter who they lost, I just never would expect them to be terrible. I think at worst they’re a middle-of-the-league team because Casey Alexander is such a solid coach. The offense he runs is tough to defend as they move the ball quickly and take (and make) a ton of threes. Could that be more of a challenge this year? Certainly. However, there is enough talent on this roster that I have reason to believe Alexander will make it work in some fashion. The good coaches can adjust to their personnel and I think if Pierre gets back to who he is, it will make the other guys on this team around him so much better. This is a team that will win games, upset some teams along the way and expect to finish in the top half of the conference again.
Team Awards:
MVP: Jonathan Pierre
Most Improved: Brigham Rogers
Best Defender: Aidan Noyes
Best Newcomer: Jonathan Pierre
Projected Starters: Carter Whitt, Brody Peebles, Isaiah Walker, Jonathan Pierre, Brigham Rodgers
Bold Prediction: Belmont will lead the Missouri Valley in both rim attempts and 2-point percentage.
7) Valparaiso
I’m buying into the improvement in year two from Rodger Powell’s team. Last year was a definitive rebuilding year for Powell in his first season and this year the Beacons should be much better off. Even in a year where the team wasn’t good, there were positives to take away. Powell used the year to get his younger players plenty of experience as he had four freshmen that played at least 16 minutes a game. That included the Freshman of the Year in the Missouri Valley in Cooper Schwieger. While I don’t think Valpo will be setting the league on fire, I do think a jump from 300 in KenPom to above 200 is possible.
Storyline number one for Valpo despite the encouraging improvement is the potential absence of Isaiah Stafford. Stafford underwent knee surgery this off-season and could potentially miss the whole season. While inefficient, Stafford led the Beacons in scoring a season ago. As I will explain below, I didn’t really change my opinion on Valpo because of this injury. Stafford at times can put the ball in the hole, but he also shoots you out of games at times.
So let’s now talk about the reason for massive improvement with the four now sophomores who all came back for their second season. Last year along with Schwieger, Sherman Weatherspoon was starting on a wing for this team. However, Kasper Sepp and Jahari Williamson both got starts last year as well which makes this team incredibly tough to project when it comes to the rotation. Schwieger will be the star and he’s great on the offensive end as a prototypical stretch four. For the other three guys, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if all of them were coming off the bench at least to start the season. Sepp, Weatherspoon and Williamson were all fairly inefficient last year so it wouldn’t surprise me if Powell decided to turn to one of the transfers he brought in instead.
Speaking of the transfers, Valpo has two notable ones in Devon Ellis and Isaiah Shaw. Of the two, Ellis had the better numbers last year but was on a much worse team at Maryland Eastern Shore while Shaw was sort of stuck on the bench on a Gran Canyon team that won an NCAA Tournament game. Shaw is the more intriguing piece to me because while he didn’t have a good year shooting the ball, previous results indicate that he is a good shooter. He is also a legacy in Valparaiso as his father Homer won a ton of games as the Head Coach at Valpo. Ellis I think you can more depend on him being a swing piece potentially off the bench.
Finally, you have some veteran returns in Darius DeAveiro and Jerome Palm. The three combined to make 74 starts for the Beacons a season ago with DeAveiro starting every single game and posting 5.3 assists per game. He is a surefire bet to be this team’s starting point guard again. In terms of the other guys, Palm needs to play more this year. This is a Valpo team that was better when Palm was on the floor defensively last season and also they finished dead last in the conference in defensive rebounding. Palm posted a defensive rebound rate of 21.1 in limited minutes. He needs to be out there more to solve that issue especially considering you can play Schwieger as a stretch four.
Season Expectations:
Maybe I am a little high on this team, but it should be fair to expect them to take a pretty sizeable jump. The guys that return all know the system now, they aren’t going to be transfer-dependent and they gained a ton of valuable experience last year. While a lot of the teams in this league are “restarting”, Valpo is improving and building and that should help them a ton this year. As for the Stafford injury, I think him being out means you generate more high-quality looks. Yeah, you might need to figure out who late in the shot clock can bail you out, but I think the ball will move better with him off of the floor. As long as you get some natural growth from your younger wings and guards, you can replace him in the aggregate. Advancing to Friday in St. Louis is not at all unreasonable and neither is being the home team on Thursday.
Team Awards:
MVP: Cooper Schwieger
Most Improved: Sherman Weatherspoon
Best Defender: Jerome Palm
Best Newcomer: Isaiah Shaw
Projected Starters: Darius DeAveiro, Isaiah Stafford, Isaiah Shaw, Cooper Schwieger, Jerome Palm
Bold Prediction: Valpo ends up being the most improved team in the Missouri Valley going from 300 in KenPom to a sub-200 team.
8) Evansville
It was tough sledding at times this off-season for David Ragland as he lost some of his most important players from a season ago. Ben Humrichous, Yacine Toumi and Chuck Bailey are all off to either high majors or teams with at-large NCAA Tournament aspirations. The Aces also lost a couple of upperclassmen to graduation from a season ago. So how does Evansville end up finishing better in the conference without those guys? Well, it’s a combination of where the league is right and now, hitting on some transfers and internal development.
Let’s start with some of the buzz that I’ve seen about the Aces this off-season. It appears that Evansville has hit with Eastern Kentucky transfer Tayshawn Comer. Comer was a big part of an Eastern Kentucky team that had a lot of success in his two years there and it sounds like he has made a year three leap. I would expect Comer to be the Aces leading scorer this season.
Another interesting piece that has had some buzz is Freshman Gabriel Pozzato who comes from Italy. It sounds like Pozzato will be in the mix for Freshman of the Year in the Missouri Valley. His athleticism is insane and it sounds like he will be able to stretch the floor as well.
The center spot will also be an interesting rotation for Ragland who has two guys in Connor Turnbull and Joshua Hughes. With the right amount of playing time, I believe Hughes can be a breakout guy in the conference this year, but Turnbull is a down transfer from Butler and should make an impact as well. Hughes last year was Top 100 in the country in block rate and also managed to hit 27 threes. If he can continue to shoot at around a 36% clip, we could see Hughes and the 6’10 Turnbull get some minutes together.
Evansville also has some reliable veterans who will step into bigger roles this season. Tanner Cuff and Cam Haffner are both back after playing lesser roles last season. Cuff is one of the better glue guys in the league. He’s a good rebounder for his size and also can be used as a secondary playmaker. His feel for the game is fantastic and he’ll be one of the smarter players in the league. Haffner on the other hand just needs to get back to what he was at Eastern Illinois. He was an elite shooter at EIU, but only shot 30% from three last season. If he’s not being a sniper, other guys might be a better option.
The biggest question for this team is their bench. Braylon Jackson has been hurt, but he’s expected to contribute. Ramondo Battle is a JUCO transfer who scored around 15 a game last season as well as six rebounds. Who also handles the ball when Comer is not in the game? I think Evansville at times is going to play some very unconventional lineups and if they can get them to work, it’ll be a matchup nightmare for the league.
Season Expectations
Evansville had some nice improvement last year in David Ragland’s second season. This year, it could be a little bit of a step back, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if it was right around the same. Losing the guys they did is tough, but they’ve done well to replace them it looks like Ragland and his staff really know how to evaluate. Evansville beat Illinois State last year to advance in the conference tournament and if they slightly improve their KenPom and conference finish and advance to Friday again, I think that’s something you can feel good about.
Team Awards:
MVP: Tayshawn Comer
Most Improved: Joshua Hughes
Best Defender: Joshua Hughes
Best Newcomer: Tayshawn Comer
Projected Starters: Tayshawn Comer, Cam Haffner, Gabriel Pozzato, Tanner Cuff, Joshua Hughes
Bold Prediction: Evansville finishes the season with the #1 block rate in the conference and both Hughes and Turnbull finish in the top five individually in the MVC.
9) Southern Illinois
Enter Scott Nagy. After posting a .500 record or better in conference play in all eight seasons at Wright State, Nagy decided to take over the program in Carbondale. The theme for his first team at Southern Illinois? Athleticism. This team is going to be able to fly around the court, but can they make enough shots is a big question mark. In all seriousness, Nagy did keep/grab a couple of players that have been in the league and that should serve him well for year one. Nagy won at South Dakota State, he won at Wright State and it wouldn’t be the least bit shocking if this team overachieved and surprised some people. I think Southern Illinois hired a very good coach.
Nagy managed to grab two transfers that can get to the rim as guards. Elijah Elliott from UT Rio Grande and Ali Dibba from Abilene Christian. These will be the bucket-getters. I’m especially intrigued by Dibba who plays bigger than 6’4 and can really get to the hole. You’re betting on a more well-rounded group outside of these two so they aren’t relied upon as much as they were at their previous stops. That might be where Kennard Davis comes in.
Davis played at Vashon which is one of the best high schools in the state of Missouri. Now as a sophomore, Davis looks like he can be a breakout candidate. While not a shooter, Davis is a strong-bodied wing who knows how to use his frame to finish inside. If he can be more aggressive this year, I would expect him to draw a ton of fouls.
An emphasis this off-season for Scott Nagy was very clearly to get big and physical centers. He was able to do that with both Jorge Moreno from the JUCO level and also Freshman Jaheem Webber. Webber certainly is not as strong as the older Moreno yet, but Nagy brought him along from Wright State which really shows how much he likes him. Webber played at Normal Community High School last season where his team finished runner-up in the state. I would expect both of these guys to contribute, but I would bet on the more experienced Moreno being the one that gets more run at least early in the season.
So I’ve said a lot of positive things about Nagy and this team, but the reason I picked them 9th is the lack of shooting. Being able to keep Jarrett Hensley and bring in Damien Mayo is nice. I especially like how hard Mayo plays on the defensive end and thought he was awesome at Missouri State. However, those guys along with the previous guys mentioned are not shooters. Neither is Texas State transfer Davion Sykes. The three-point shooting falls a lot on Drew Steffe. They are going to need him to play a lot as well as other guys to step up and make some outside shots. Nagy typically had tremendous three-point shooting teams at Wright State so I don’t expect this to be a year-over-year thing.
Season Expectations
I think Southern Illinois is another team that can surprise some people if things go right. There’s a world where their athleticism is just too much for other teams in the league to handle at times. I think the shooting problem puts them in this middle to lower part of the league, but I don’t think finishing ninth would be discouraging. The margins are so thin and I think if Nagy proves to hold his own with the top coaches in this league you have to feel very good about that. The expectation should be to finish in this 7-9 range and be a competitive team in most games.
Team Awards:
MVP: Kennard Davis Jr.
Most Improved: Kennard Davis Jr.
Best Defender: Damien Mayo Jr.
Best Newcomer: Ali Dibba
Projected Starters: Elijah Elliott, Ali Dibba, Kennard Davis Jr., Davion Sykes, Jorge Moreno
Bold Prediction: Drew Steffe even if it is off the bench, finishes top three in minutes per game due to his need for shooting.
10) UIC
In just their third year in the Missouri Valley, UIC brings in a new coach. Rob Ehsan will get a second shot at being a head after just an okay stint at UAB the first time around. Full disclosure, I am completely guessing with this UIC roster. I like some of the transfers, but I have no idea what to expect out of this group. It wouldn’t surprise me if they finish last and it wouldn’t surprise me if they got a bye and didn’t play in St. Louis on Thursday. There’s some real upside here, but I could also see this just not working and I’ll explain why.
So for the nine previous teams, the theme has been going over individual players and their strengths and weaknesses and how they can help the team. For UIC, I don’t even know how this team is going to play. They bring back two guys in Filip Skobalj and Ethan Pickett, but even Skobalj who played the five last year probably isn’t going to do that this season. Modestas Kancleris and Sasa Ciani both come in and are bigger than UIC. This is probably good for UIC who was the worst rebounding team in the conference last year and it allows Skobalj to play more as a stretch four, but you also have Jayce Nathaniel out of AZ Compass who might be the most talented freshman in this conference.
I also like some of the guard pieces they have. I wrote an article highlighting the most underrated 2024 kids from Illinois and Carlos Harris was on it. The kid is a pure winner and I think can give them meaningful minutes. If I had done this same article for 2023, Ahmad Henderson would have been on it. Henderson just knows how to put the ball in the bucket and even if his numbers went down during conference play last season, I think he’ll do well playing in the city he is from. When Henderson was a senior in high school, his Brother Rice team took down a St. Rita team in the playoffs that had juniors now committed to UNC, Iowa State and Illinois. If Henderson was 6’0 and not 5’9, I’m fairly certain UIC would’ve been more interested in him out of high school.
The wing group for this team is also full of transfers. You’ve got Jordan Mason from Texas State, Joshua Reeves from Mount St. Mary’s and Javon Jackson from Utah State to pair with Ethan Pickett and freshman Iker Garmendia. I thought Ethan Pickett was really solid in the minutes he got last season, but again, I have no idea how this group is going to play. Mason had some really bad efficiency numbers at Texas State last season, but he could be in a better role this season. Reeves was a smart addition as a floor spacer. I’d like to see him in lineups with Henderson. Garmendia had some really solid numbers in Spain last year as well so I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes an impact.
Season Expectations
Lay the building blocks. With so many moving parts, I think it’s important that Ehsan figures out what he wants this program to be. I want to see that this team has an identity and I do love that their backcourt is two Chicago kids. That’s a formula that can work for years to come. To me, if this team can improve as the season goes along and begin to gel, that’s a success. I definitely would rather play UIC this season early rather than late.
Team Awards:
MVP: Ahmad Henderson
Most Improved: Jordan Mason
Best Defender: Modestas Kancleris
Best Newcomer: Ahmad Henderson
Projected Starters: Ahmad Henderson, Jordan Mason, Joshua Reeves, Filip Skobalj, Modestas Kancleris
Bold Prediction: Multiple UIC freshmen make the conference’s all-freshman team.
11) Indiana State
A year after a near-at-large NCAA Tournament bid and a regular season MVC championship, Indiana State is in rebuild mode. The Sycamores were the only team in the conference that hired internally, going with Matthew Graves to be the guy that leads the trees. Graves was able to retain a couple of guys, but this is another team that will be relying a ton on transfers. Like Ehsan, Graves is also getting a second opportunity after a tough stint at South Alabama. Learning from Josh Schertz can certainly help, so let’s dive into if the Sycamores are going to try to replicate that.
A lot of this team’s scoring is going to be dependent on the backcourt players. Tyran Cook from VMI had a really solid freshman season where he scored around 12 points per game. VMI did not win many games, but Cook showed some flashes. Samage Teel is a guy I am really excited for as he had a big season at Presbyterian. Teel is a sharpshooter who did well in a high-usage role last year and while Presbyterian was not great either, Teel was far from the problem. He is an all-conference-level player. If I had to put money down, I would bet on Teel being the starting point guard for this team to open the season with Cook as a backup option off the bench. This is simply because these are the only two guys on the team that can handle the ball.
Jahni Summers could really be the player that makes me wrong about this team. Summers as a freshman last year, averaged 18 points per game and shot 37% from three at the JUCO level. If he can adjust quickly to the Division l level, he gives the Sycamores another bonafide perimeter threat.
My concerns with Indiana State lie in the front court. Remember, last year Indiana State really only played six guys relevant minutes. Guys that return like Derek Vorst, Jaden Daughtry and Aaron Gray were buried on the bench and now will step into bigger roles. Markus Harding should assume the role as this team’s starting center and I would expect him to play around 27-30 minutes a game for this team. Harding has some nice touch around the rim and can also bang with guys in the post, but I am not sure how reliable the guys behind him are. Last year Indiana State finished 360th in bench minutes because they had one of the best starting fives in the country. This year, they probably won’t be very high in bench minutes again, but for a different reason.
This defense could be a real concern as well. While some of these guys like Cook and Teel can score, they don’t have a lot of guys that defend. Evan Miyakawa projects Merritt Alderink and Derek Vorst as the only guys on the team with a positive DBPR.
Season Expectations:
Indiana State accomplished so much last season and was one of the most fun teams to watch and follow in college basketball. This is going to be a process if the Trees want to get to the top of the Valley again. If that means playing some of the younger players if Indiana State isn’t winning games, so be it. There’s certainly a world where Teel, Cook, Summers and Harding are all awesome and they outperform expectations, but I would expect them to be in the bottom half of the league.
Team Awards:
MVP: Samage Teel
Most Improved: Aaron Gray
Best Defender: Derek Vorst
Best Newcomer: Samage Teel
Projected Starters: Samage Teel, Jahni Summers, Aaron Gray, Jaden Daughtry, Markus Harding
Bold Prediction: Indiana State wins 2/3 in the Bahamas including a double-digit win over Iona so I get to brag to Sam Federman.
12) Missouri State
Well, it’s been a fun 35 years. Missouri State joined the Valley in 1990 and this season will be their last in the conference as the Bears now under Cuonzo Martin, head to Conference USA. Speaking of Cuonzo Martin, he’s back! The man who coached the Bears from 2008-2011 is back after making pit stops at Tennessee, Cal and Missouri. The Bears are hoping to reignite a spark to the program headed into a new conference under a man who coached them to a 15-3 conference record in his final season in Springfield. Can he get them to that point again? Well, signs for at least this season say no.
So what is there to get excited about with the team that I picked to finish last? They have 15 newcomers including three JUCO transfers. Also, Cuonzo Martin’s teams generally play very hard. To me, Dez White will be very important for this team as he’s one of the guys I am confident in can score. This team is full of guys who played at levels much lower than the Valley, but White is an in-state talent who had some good moments in his freshman season at Austin Peay.
Wyatt Wheeler who covers Missouri State also mentioned a little while back that people were really excited about Wesley Oba from Delaware State. Oba isn’t going to light up the stat sheet on the offensive end, but at 6’8 he’s an excellent rebounder and plays hard. If you do those two things, you can play for Cuonzo Martin.
I don’t want to be the hater because truth be told, I love this league. I wish everyone in this conference could be good. However, this is a roster that to me is filled with guys who were just okay for losing Division l teams and solid JUCO guys. I really question what this offense is going to be because Cuonzo Martin is not an X’s and O’s wizard and that never has been his thing.
Season Expectations:
Moving from the Missouri Valley to Conference USA is not a huge jump so I think this program can actually take its’ time getting things right and they are in no rush. They would actually be projected higher in Conference USA via KenPom if they were there this season. For this season specifically, I could see a world where Missouri State becomes the team that plays really hard and picks off some teams because of that. I just don’t think this offense is going to be good enough to be able to consistently win like that.
Team Awards:
MVP: Dez White
Most Improved: Wesley Oba
Best Defender: Mike Osei-Bonsu
Best Newcomer: Dez White
Projected Starters: Dez White, Vincent Brady, Jalen Hampton, Mike Osei-Bonsu, Allen Udemadu
Bold Prediction: As their last act as a member of the Missouri Valley, Missouri State gets some voodoo magic and pulls multiple upsets to advance to the semifinals of Arch Madness.
Season Awards:
Now that we’ve talked about every team, it’s time to give out the Jonathan Lidskin Missouri Valley awards for the conference this season. We’ll also predict the All-Conference teams and an All-Freshman team.
Larry Bird Trophy: Tytan Anderson, Northern Iowa
Newcomer of the Year: Cam Manyawu, Drake
Freshman of the Year: Gabriel Pozzato, Evansville
Defensive MVP: Darius Hannah, Bradley
Coach of the Year: Ben McCollum, Drake
MVC First Team:
Duke Deen, Bradley
Tytan Anderson, Northern Iowa
Jonathan Pierre, Belmont
Cam Manyawu, Drake
Darius Hannah, Bradley
MVC Second Team:
Trey Campbell, Northern Iowa
Johnny Kinziger, Illinois State
JaCobi Wood, Murray State
Bennett Stiritz, Drake
Cooper Schwieger, Valpo
MVC Third Team:
Tayshawn Comer, Evansville
Samage Teel, Indiana State
Boden Skunberg, Illinois State
Nick Ellington, Murray State
Joshua Hughes, Evansville
MVC Freshman Team:
Carlos Harris, UIC
Isaia Howard, Drake
Gabriel Pozzato, Evansville
Jayce Nathaniel, UIC
Merritt Alderink, Indiana State
About my connection with the Valley:
I started covering the MVC Tournament three years ago because I wanted to cover a conference tournament that was within driving distance. I did not think it would lead to me becoming the Missouri Valley fan that I am today.
This league is special. The fans are some of the most passionate in mid-major basketball and that shows in St. Louis year after year. This season, I am hoping that St. Louis is not my only stop to see a Valley team in person. As much as I love this conference, I have not gotten to experience any of its’ tremendous atmospheres yet.
However, I will be making it back to St. Louis this year for Arch Madness for sure. I will also be writing about the conference all year long and will be hoping to get some more coaches on the Brackets, Bubbles and Bid Stealers podcast this season. Here’s to another fantastic year of Missouri Valley basketball and as always #TheValleyRunsDeep.