Early Portal Thoughts

By Jonathan Lidskin

Photo: Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics

The transfer portal is off and running with entries galore. Zoom calls are happening, visits are being planned and NIL figures are being thrown out. Here are some of the early portal commits and my thoughts on the players and fits.

J.P. Estrella - Michigan

We are just three days into the portal, but I imagine there’s not going to be many portal fits I like better than Estrella to Michigan. At just 17 minutes a game, Estrella had some excellent per-minute stats with over 10 points and 5 rebounds. Last year, Michigan took multiple bigs that were impactful in fairly limited roles and Estrella is no different.

At 6’11, Estrella is one of the best offensive rebounders that the sport has to offer. Tennessee was over 10 points per 100 possessions better this season with Estrella on the floor. He was so good that it’s probably fair to wonder if Rick Barnes was playing him enough.

Estrella is going to be a perfect fit for Morez Johnson if he opts to head to the NBA, but if not, Estrella and Johnson could make up one of the best front courts in college basketball next season with their skill and rebounding combo. If his defense comes along, Estrella is a lock for an all-conference spot next season.

Miles Byrd - Providence

Coming from the Nate Oats tree, Bryan Hodgson emphasizes rim and three rate. That instantly makes Byrd a questionable fit when you factor in that he is not a good three-point shooter and did not get to the rim a ton. Despite that, I think there is enough here to like.

For starters, Byrd is an elite defender who should translate pretty well into this scheme. Hodgson’s South Florida team forced a lot of turnovers last year, which should bode well for a guy who was top 40 nationally in steal rate. Byrd, like other former SDSU guards, could benefit from leaving that system as well. In a better offensive system, it’s plausible that Byrd’s efficiency numbers from three and at the rim go up.

Hodgson’s system does a much better job of letting athletes be athletes and that’s where I think Byrd will thrive the most. This is a little riskier of a gamble, but I’ve always been high on Byrd’s upside. After all, Lamont Butler’s three-point percentage went up 8% after he left SDSU for a friendlier offense.

Tyler Lundblade - Tennessee

Despite the fact that I was mildly critical of Rick Barnes’ handling of J.P. Estrella, I have been complimentary of Barnes’ ability to become more offense-focused in recent years. Grabbing one of the best shooters in the country from Belmont keeps up the trend.

Tennessee’s offense is centered on a playmaking point guard getting the ball to the shotmakers off of pindown screens. We’ve seen it work well the last couple of years. First it was Zakai Zeigler and Dalton Knecht, then Zeigler and Chaz Lanier and then Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament. This year, it will be Tyler Lundblade, and who?

That’s the question we have to answer to complete the puzzle. Who is getting Lundblade the ball? This is not the Casey Alexander Belmont motion that is going to naturally get shooters good looks, so you’re going to need Lundblade to play with a point guard that can make reads. In theory, the pindowns are set a little wider for Lundblade so he can just come off them and drill threes (he doesn’t need a ton of space) vs Ament and his predecessors, who were also looking to get downhill.

Oswin Erhunmwunse - Creighton

The first year of Alan Huss should start to look more defensively like the Creighton of the 2020’s instead of whatever we were subjected to this season. Oswin fits much better than the hypothetical version of Owen Freeman that Creighton was planning to use last season. Huss, like his mentor Greg McDermott, played a strict drop coverage at High Point with Juslin Bodo Bodo. I expect the same type of defense as Huss takes the reins in Omaha.

Instantly grabbing one of the best rim-protecting centers in the country to play that scheme is a perfect start to the Huss era. Last year, Providence was 9.6 points per 100 possessions better with Oswin on the floor. 7.7 of those points were on defense. If Oswin can continue to be a good rim finisher, block shots and rebound the ball, he’ll be a huge plus for Creighton. If he can do all of that and lower his foul rate, he could completely change Creighton’s defense overnight.

Sam Orme - Nebraska

Another Belmont transfer that won’t be following Casey Alexander to Kansas State, and another program will reap the benefits of that. Nebraska is coming off its best season ever, and part of the reason for that is Fred Hoiberg’s brilliance in roster construction and style. So, what do we think could be a good add for a team that was 99th percentile in pick and pop frequency? How about a player who was 95th percentile in pick and pop efficiency?

The Huskers are going to need a creator to replace both Jamarques Lawrence and Sam Hoiberg, but Sam Orme should work great in a system that emphasizes shooting threes and moving the ball. My only concern with this is how much Nebraska’s defense is impacted by replacing Berke Buyuktuncel with Orme. However, Orme’s offense might be so good that the difference does not matter.

Filip Jovic - UCLA

Filip Jovic is the final player I’m taking a look at today, and even though I don’t mind the fit, Jovic is probably the player on here I have the most questions about. Mick Cronin seems to be making a point to emphasize toughness for his next roster. The UCLA team clearly lacked the toughness you would expect from a typical Cronin team, so I think it is great that they are addressing it.

However, I’m not sure if Jovic is going to be able to fit into this offense despite the fact that he is tough and will be a beast on the glass. Jovic is strictly a post-up big, and UCLA is not an offense that is going to throw it into the post a whole lot. Jovic is not a spectacular defender either, so is his role just going to be a physical monster when the ball hits the rim?

That could work as Jovic was a low usage player this season, but I’m not totally sure where else he fits on this team yet. Again, I like the idea and I could be jumping the gun with some of these thoughts, but it’s a wait and see how the roster turns out situation for me.