By Sam Federman
With Loyola Chicago's loss to San Francisco in Milwaukee on Sunday, there are just five remaining undefeated teams in college basketball. From this point forward, these teams are cast into an even deeper spotlight. Nobody expects anybody to have an undefeated season, so each game becomes an event, who will drop? Who will be the last team standing?
Here is the date over the last few years that the final undefeated team has suffered its first loss
2023-24: Houston, Jan. 9 at Iowa State (14-0)
2022-23: New Mexico, Jan. 3 at Fresno State (14-0)
2021-22: Baylor, Jan. 11 vs Texas Tech (15-0)
2020-21: Gonzaga, April 5 vs Baylor* (31-0)
2019-20: San Diego State, Feb. 22 vs UNLV (26-0)
2018-19: Virginia, Jan. 19 at Duke (16-0)
No team from the six high-major leagues has made it into February with an undefeated record (COVID season excluded), since 2015 Kentucky, which made it all the way to the Final Four before taking its first loss. This year, there are three high-major teams that remain undefeated after six weeks of games, and two mid-majors as well. All three high-major teams come from the same league, the SEC.
Here are the five undefeated teams in college basketball
Tennessee (10-0) gutted out a win in Champaign on Saturday, getting a buzzer beater from Jordan Gainey to stay unbeaten.
Florida (10-0) has won every single game by at least 13 points. The Gators have only failed to score 80 points once.
Oklahoma (10-0) is the SEC's surprise undefeated team, winning in Atlantis and carrying the momentum through a rather weak non-conference slate.
Utah State (10-0) seems to win regardless of who the coach is. Jerrod Calhoun has already notched wins over Iowa, St. Bonaventure, and North Texas on neutral floors.
Drake (9-0) won the Charleston Classic convincingly back in November, and has kept it going under Ben McCollum in year one.
Now that we've met the teams, lets compare them by resume.
Do you have a true road win?
Tennessee: Two of them, actually! A drubbing of Louisville on the first Saturday of the season, and the aforementioned Illinois win this past weekend.
Florida: Yes, the Gators took down Florida State in mid-November in Tallahassee, winning on the glass 47-29.
Oklahoma: No. The Sooners' first true road game isn't until after New Year's.
Utah State: No, but the Aggies go on the road for three big games before the New Year.
Drake: Yes! The Bulldogs took down Valpo 66-60 in the Missouri Valley opener, holding the Beacons to just 19 attempts inside the arc.
Do you have a quad 1 win?
Tennessee: Three of them, actually! The Vols' wins over Louisville and Illinois, along with the neutral site win over Baylor are all quad 1.
Florida: Yes. While the FSU win is just outside of Q1 (79th in the NET), the Gators picked up an 83-66 win over Arizona State this weekend in Atlanta. The Sun Devils are 49th in the NET.
Oklahoma: Yes. Arizona might be fading fast from a Q1 game (48th in the NET, need to stay top 50), but for now, the Atlantis semifinal win is in this category.
Utah State: No. Iowa (51), St. Bonaventure (56), and North Texas (66), are all knocking on the door though!
Drake: No. Vanderbilt (54th in the NET) is excruciatingly close, but nothing else really has much of a Q1 shot so far. Drake only has one game on its schedule that is currently situated at Q1.
Where are you in KenPom?
Tennessee: No. 2
Florida: No. 7
Oklahoma: No. 37
Utah State: No. 46
Drake: No. 73
What about the NET?
Tennessee: No. 2
Florida: No. 5
Oklahoma: No. 41
Utah State: No. 20
Drake: No. 45
Now, let's learn about each team's star players.
Tennessee: Chaz Lanier has been the perfect Dalton Knecht replacement, averaging 19 points per game while shooting 47% from three. Zakai Zeigler is still one of the best on-ball defenders in the country, and sets the tone offensively with 7.4 assists per game.
Florida: Former Iona superstar Walter Clayton Jr. has taken another leap into an All-American caliber player, averaging 19.1 points and 3.6 assists on 47% from the field and 37% from three.
Oklahoma: Reclass freshman Jeremiah Fears is one of the most electric guards in the country, averaging 16.7 points, 4.7 assists, and 2.4 steals per game thanks in part to his blistering speed. Jalon Moore has taken the second-year-transfer jump, and is now averaging 17.5 points per game.
Utah State: Mason Falslev has evolved from an elite slashing complimentary guard into one of the most well-rounded guards in the sport. He's averaging 17 points, 6 boards, and 3 assists per game on 55% from the field and 47% from three. He scored 27 points, dished out 9 assists, and pulled in 9 boards against USF on Saturday. Ian Martinez is also averaging 18.1 points for the Aggies.
Drake: Bennett Stirtz has transitioned extremely well to the Division I level, averaging 17.8 points and 6.1 assists per game. The 6 foot 4 point guard is the conductor of McCollum's intricate offense.
Okay, now to the nitty gritty. When will each of these teams lose?
I'm going to start with the two non-SEC teams.
Drake
Drake has a big test coming up on Tuesday against Kansas State. While the Wildcats have underperformed expectations, they are still one of the most talented teams in the country and have a ton of size on the inside that can disrupt the Bulldog big men.
Adding on that this game will be in Kansas City, Drake is actually a KenPom underdog. If K-State can stay disciplined on both ends of the floor, it should be able to get the job done, but Drake has been so good at picking every opposing mistake apart.
If the Bulldogs do get past the Cats, they should make it back to conference play unbeaten after a game against Green Bay.
After that, Drake takes on Belmont, a talented team that is well-coached, and could present a challenge, although the game is at home. A trip to UIC is also a test, as the Flames have defeated Yale and La Salle already, but have also been blown out at home by Northern Iowa.
Murray State should be another challenging matchup, before the Bulldogs face their biggest test of the year. Bradley was the pick to win the Missouri Valley from most prognosticators in the preseason. The Braves are 8-2 and rank as the top three-point shooting team in the country right now. Carver Arena in Peoria will be absolutely rocking, if Drake comes in undefeated, and it will be very difficult for the Bulldogs to leave that building with a win on Wednesday, Jan. 8.
If Drake makes it to Bradley undefeated, they'll be 14-0, just four wins shy of the 18-0 mark from the 2020-21 season under Darian DeVries. In order to break that, Drake would have to stay undefeated past a home game against Valpo on Jan. 22.
Utah State
Wow. What an insane finish to December for Utah State. UC San Diego is a program on the rise, currently in the top 100 comfortably after demolishing Idaho on the road. The Tritons are 9-2 and have won seven in a row. UCSD went 15-5 in the Big West last year, but wasn't eligible for the postseason due to NCAA transition rules. Even after losing Bryce Pope and Francis Nwaokorie, Eric Olen's team has improved. It will be a war on Tuesday night in Logan, but the Aggies should have enough to get it done.
Then, the most difficult stretch of the season commences.
Saint Mary's has lost just twice, and neither has come on their home floor. The Gaels welcome the Aggies to Moraga next Sunday, and we'll have the chance to see how Utah State reacts in its first true road game of the season against an incredibly disciplined and well-coached team.
After that, the Aggies go back into Mountain West play with road games against San Diego State and Nevada, two of the top teams in the league. Utah State isn't a great outside shooting team, and they do tend to get blocked a lot at the rim, so they may struggle with San Diego State's incredible two-point defense and rim protection. Then, Nevada presents the unique challenge of defending the 6 foot 9 point guard, Kobe Sanders, who is surrounded by elite shooters.
KenPom gives Utah State just a 3.3% chance of going into the New Year undefeated with a 14-0 record, but even that number feels high. As somebody who really likes Utah State, it would be a miracle for the Aggies to win all four of these games.
If they somehow do, they'll likely be 16-0 going into a home game against Boise State on Jan. 11. The Aggies get their toughest road games out of the way early in conference play, and then they don't have to go to the Pit or up to Boise until mid-February.
Now, onto the SEC.
Both Oklahoma and Florida play in Charlotte this week. The Gators take on North Carolina on Tuesday, while the Sooners take on Michigan on Wednesday. Those are the final tests for those two before SEC play starts after the new year.
Before we break down the schedules, here is the schedule for when these three teams play against each other
Tuesday, Jan. 7: Tennessee at Florida
Saturday, Feb. 1: Florida at Tennessee
Saturday, Feb. 8: Tennessee at Oklahoma
Tuesday, Feb. 18: Oklahoma at Florida
Now, Oklahoma
Michigan is 15 spots higher in KenPom than Oklahoma, and is an extremely unique team to play against with the 4-5 pick-and-roll. The Sooners will have their hands full trying to stop Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. However, OU does force a ton of turnovers, which has been Michigan's big issue. If Oklahoma can run in transition and spark scoring runs with defense, it should make it to Tuscaloosa without a blemish.
However, once it gets there, I'd be shocked if it continued. Alabama is an offensive machine that hasn't even fully loaded yet. Mark Sears is shooting well below his career marks, and the freshman guard matchup of Fears and LaBaron Philon will be must-watch.
After that, the SEC grind continues, there are no games off. Texas A&M at home is a toss-up, same with Georgia away. There's a better chance that Oklahoma is 0-4 in the SEC than 4-0, as a testament to the strength of the league.
Oklahoma's hardest games are back-loaded though. No matchups with Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, and Kentucky, four of the top five teams in the conference per KenPom, until February.
Florida
It will be difficult for Florida to pull out a win against UNC in Charlotte, even though the Heels don't look especially strong right now. Although, this is a complete mismatch on the interior. Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu should have their way with the North Carolina frontcourt, it's just a matter of if they can generate the opportunities necessary.
The SEC slate is immediately challenging for UF, with a trip to Rupp Arena. It's the second consecutive year that Florida opens SEC play against the Cats, but this year's Cats team is much different, as we know. The energy around Kentucky basketball is positive, as BBN has a well-coached, well-meshed team to root for. Both of these teams can put the ball in the hoop at a high level. but Kentucky will have the crowd with them all afternoon.
If Florida makes it back home undefeated, it sets up a matchup with Tennessee. Will the Vols be undefeated going into that Jan. 7 matchup?
Yes, they probably will.
Tennessee doesn't have to leave Knoxville until that matchup, and its SEC opener is against a talented, but extremely disjointed Arkansas team. Zakai Zeigler will be ready to welcome freshman point guard Boogie Fland to the SEC with his ball pressure, and the crowd will let former Vol Jonas Aidoo know how they feel about him.
Middle Tennessee and Norfolk State are good mid-majors, but they will not present much of a challenge for Tennessee.
If the Vols make it past Gainesville undefeated, they don't have to play against one of the SEC's projected top 5 teams again until Jan. 25, when they travel to Neville Arena to face Auburn.
Despite that, Tennessee has multiple tests leading into it because of how good the SEC is. Texas, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State all provide different challenges, and the Volunteers probably don't make it out of those four games without a blemish.
KenPom gives the Vols a 17% chance to walk into Neville Arena with a 19-0 record, which is much higher than I would've expected, but is still fairly low.
So, now it is time to answer the question - who will be the last undefeated team?
Ranked from most to least likely
Tennessee
Drake
Florida
Utah State
Oklahoma