America East: Vermont
One of the biggest favorites of this year’s conference tournaments and it has been that way for a while now. John Becker doesn’t have one of his best teams, but the Catamounts are miles above the field defensively, have a balanced offensive attack with seven players averaging 7.5 points or more and will get the entire conference tournament at home.
Atlantic Sun: Eastern Kentucky
Two 1 seeds in a row to start this isn’t super thrilling, but Eastern Kentucky has one of the best interior defenses in the country. Isaiah Cozart is a name that everyone needs to know going into the first week of Champ Week and one of the best two-way players in the country.
Big Sky: Weber State
Weber State stumbled mid-season, but have completely flipped a switch down the stretch. Since the start of February, the Wildcats have been the top-rated Big Sky team via Torvik by 25 spots and they’re also the only team in the league that has the luxury of trotting out a player of Dillon Jones’ caliber.
Big South: High Point
I do feel that the Big South tournament could be somewhat chaotic so picking the regular-season champs might be a little unwarranted. However, the Panthers roll out an elite backcourt with Duke Miles, Kezza Giffa and Kimani Hamilton. The Panthers are also a great rebounding team and have an interior defense good enough to contain Drew Pember if they meet.
CAA: Hofstra
Hofstra’s depth concerns me a little bit, but I love the Pride’s draw in this bracket. Speedy Claxton’s team won’t have to get through either Charleston or UNC Wilmington to get to the title game. They also have two stars in Tyler Thomas and Darlinstone Dubar as well as an elite playmaker in Jaquan Carlos.
Horizon: Oakland
Could be one of the crazier tournaments, but Oakland as the 1 seed gets the benefit of re-seeding if a lower seed pulls off an upset. Greg Kampe’s team has also been playing great basketball over the last month behind Trey Townsend.
Missouri Valley: Drake
Our temperatures at Brackets, Bubbles and Bid Stealers from #ValleyFever will be very high this week for Arch Madness. Indiana State has grasped the national attention this year, but with the Sycamores dealing with some injury problems down the stretch, look for Drake to repeat behind big-time scoring efforts from Tucker DeVries and a supporting cast that has played well above expectations this year.
Northeast: Merrimack
I think Joe Gallo is a really good coach and Merrimack will be a constant threat next year in the MAAC when they move over. Jordan Derkack should be the player of the year in the league and will lead the Warriors to the NCAA Tournament after being ineligible a season ago.
Ohio Valley: Little Rock
As I said on the pod Saturday night, I went back and forth between Little Rock and Morehead State. The Trojans, however, have won 9 in a row and also get a double bye while Morehead gets a single bye. Behind the guard tandem of KK Robinson and Jamir Chaplin, Little Rock will extend their winning streak to 11 to get to the NCAA Tournament.
Patriot: Colgate
Similar to Vermont, I don’t think this is one of Matt Langel’s best teams, but I’m still not picking against the guy. Colgate is the #1 team on KenPom in the Patriot League by well over 100 spots and with that defense, there’s a chance they win all three of their games in this tournament by double digits.
SoCon: UNC Greensboro
The SoCon was probably the toughest league for Week 1 to pick. The league has five good teams that I think could win it as well as a handful of fantastic coaches. I went with UNC Greensboro here because of their balance and the fact that Samford, Western Carolina and Furman are all on the other side of the bracket.
Southland: McNeese State
If not for Corpus Christi, McNeese would be the biggest favorite of champ week by a mile. Will Wade has effectively built a high major team in the Southland led by Allen Fieldhouse legend Shahada Wells and SportsCenter Top 10 MVP Christian Shumate. The Cowboys will also be well-rested with a double bye and what should be two easy wins to close the regular season.
Summit: St. Thomas
The Tommies were ineligible for the NCAA Tournament last year, but have significantly improved in their first three years in Division l. Johnny Tauer has built a good program that ranked first in the Summit League in offensive and defensive efficiency this season. St. Thomas as the 4 seed is the lowest seed I picked for week one, but I certainly think this team is better than their seed.
Sun Belt: Appalachian State
My co-hosts on Saturday night made compelling arguments about how tough it would be for App State to knock off James Madison for a third time this year, but the Mountaineers have an elite defense that hasn’t gotten notably worse on the road this year. I trust their defense to travel (to beautiful Pensacola, Florida) and help them capture the Sun Belt title.
West Coast: Gonzaga
Gonzaga didn’t get at least a share of the WCC title for the first time since 2012, but the Zags have been playing like a borderline top-10 team over the last month due to improved play from Ben Gregg and Braden Huff. Gonzaga won’t be playing with a ton of pressure with an NCAA Tournament bid very likely locked up anyway, but just for good measure, they’ll beat Saint Mary’s again.