By Jonathan Lidskin
Two years ago, I created this set of guidelines for picking your bracket for March Madness. While these are far from guarantees, they serve as good reminders to use sound reasoning when picking the most chaotic postseason in sports.
With Selection Sunday on the horizon, here are 20 rules to note when making your picks for the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
Rule 1: Take conference tournament week with a grain of salt
Illinois, Texas and Georgia Tech all didn’t win regular season titles in their league and won their conference tournaments in 2021. All four of those teams lost before the second weekend. Make sure to have a good idea of the teams you think are making deep runs and try not to let conference tournaments alter that.
Rule 2: Pay attention to path
Some regions are going to be harder than others. In 2021 the top half of Illinois’ region had a bunch of really good teams. By the time Oregon St got through to the Elite Eight, they had already played three really good teams. Houston came out and was the better team from the tip. Just because you think a team is really good, doesn’t mean they’re going to roll everyone no matter the teams they play.
Rule 3: When deciding on a game, ask yourself how big the coaching gap is
There are countless examples for this, but to name a few from 2021: Fran McCaffery vs Dana Altman, Brad Underwood vs Porter Moser, Kelvin Sampson vs Jim Boeheim. Coaching mismatches will typically come into effect in the middle rounds of the tournament.
Rule 4: Don’t you dare pick mid-majors to win against teams with a ton of size & athleticism
Florida State was exhibit A for this rule for a while. The Seminoles were dubbed a mid-major nightmare because they’re always one of the tallest and most athletic teams in the country. You might fall in love with a mid-major at the end of the season, but don’t force the pick.
Rule 5: Write down a list of teams you think are seeded too high and too low and what they should really be and keep it next to you while filling out your bracket.
If you don’t write it down, the thought process won’t help you. You need to actually write down that Loyola should’ve been a 7 seed and Clemson should’ve been an 8 seed otherwise when you’re filling out, you’re not going to believe yourself.
Rule 6: Don’t sell yourself on players. Sell yourself on teams.
The Oklahoma State catastrophe against Oregon State got me on this one. Cade was unreal. The rest of the Cowboys weren’t.
Rule 6A: Don’t convince yourself that a star has a good supporting cast around him in the last two weeks before Selection Sunday.
Rule 7: Defense wins championships, but offense gets you there
Make sure the teams you pick to go far can make enough shots to get where you want them to go. I thought Alabama was going to potentially play for a national title last year. Their volume of shots didn’t matter when they missed them against UCLA.
Rule 8: Don’t forget about free throw shooting
If two teams are even, missed vs made free throws could be the key. Alabama again last year was the 190th-best free throw shooting team. It cost them their season.
Rule 9: You’re better off betting against a conference than on one
Every year, we get suckered into conference hype. More likely than not, one conference will have a really good tournament and the rest will be average to very bad. Every conference has a best team for a reason. Sometimes, it’s a best couple of teams. Don’t try to make one superior. If anything, try to make one inferior.
Rule 10: Don’t fall in love with teams that would be satisfied with their regular season performance
If Illinois and Alabama’s season had ended on Selection Sunday in 2021, they would’ve been perfectly fine with how their season went.
Rule 11: Beware of teams you like matching up early with unique teams.
I’ll never forget picking Notre Dame in 2017 to go to the Final Four. I was betting against them avoiding Press Virginia in the second round with less than 48 hours between games. Critical mistake. Syracuse (when it played the 2-3 zone) was another good example of this.
Rule 12: You can allow yourself to be talked into big-time programs that underachieved
UCLA and UNC in 2021 and 2022.
Rule 13: Everybody is a choker until they aren’t.
Self-explanatory. Every coach has lost in March before they won.
Rule 14: Before conference tournaments start, write down a list of teams you think can win the national championship.
It’ll help you if you can stick to what you know and don’t talk yourself into anything crazy.
Rule 15: It’s perfectly fine to pick a somewhat lower seed to get to the Final Four, but make sure that team can win four games in a row first.
There have been plenty of 3, 4 and 5 seeds that I’ve talked myself into (2015 Louisville, 2018 Kentucky). But those teams were seeded where they are for a reason. Wildly inconsistent at times.
Rule 16: Don’t predetermine your first-round upsets before you see their matchups.
We watch the mid-major conference tournaments and fall in love with some of the teams that win them. Don’t tell yourself you are picking a mid-major to win a first-round game before you see the matchup and think about it. Looking at you 2022 South Dakota State.
Rule 17: You know the teams you don’t like. Don’t pick a team to go far just because of the number next to their name.
Auburn 2022
Rule 18: The reason you want to pick a play-in team to win is more because of the first-round opponent than it is the play-in team
UCLA over Michigan State, Notre Dame over Rutgers. Both those teams were not the play-in pick but beat the 6 seed anyway
Rule 19: Stop picking teams to win their second-round game before they win their first.
Rule 20: Don’t fall for the Vontae Mack theory
Do not. Absolutely do not, guarantee ANYTHING in your mind before you see a bracket.