Jonathan Lidskin’s March Madness Bracket Bible: 2025
- Jonathan Lidskin
- Mar 18
- 3 min read
By Jonathan Lidskin
Three years ago, I created this set of guidelines for picking your bracket for the NCAA Tournament. While these are far from guarantees, they serve as good reminders to use sound reasoning when picking the most chaotic postseason in sports.
With Selection Sunday come and gone, here are 20 rules to note when making your picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Rule 1: Take conference tournament week with a grain of salt
2021 Texas
2022 Iowa
2021 Ohio State
2024 Wisconsin
Rule 1A: Bid Stealers are an exception to this rule. Evaluate them normally
2021 Oregon State
2024 NC State
Rule 2: Pay attention to path
2022 Kansas
2021 Houston
2024 Alabama
Rule 3: When having a tough time deciding on a game, ask yourself how big the coaching gap is (specifically scouting and in-game coaching)
2021 Iowa vs Oregon
2023 Memphis vs Florida Atlantic
2022 LSU vs Iowa State
Rule 4: Don’t you dare pick midmajors to win against teams with a ton of length & athleticism
Late 2010’s Florida State
2022 Vermont vs Arkansas
2023 Charleston vs San Diego State
Rule 5: Write down a list of teams you think are seeded too high and too low and what they should really be and keep it next to you while filling out your bracket.
Rule 6: Don’t sell yourself on players. Sell yourself on teams.
2021 Oklahoma State
2022 Wisconsin
2023 Purdue
Rule 6A: Don’t convince yourself that a star has a good supporting cast around him in the last two weeks before selection sunday.
Rule 7: Defense wins championships, but offense gets you there
2024 Alabama
2023 Miami
2021 UCLA
Rule 8: Don’t forget about free throw shooting
Mostly for games you think will be decided by a couple of points
For this year, Memphis vs Colorado State and Oregon vs Liberty
Rule 9: You’re better off betting against a conference than on one
2019 ACC
2021 Big Ten
Rule 10: Don’t fall in love with teams that would be satisfied with their season before the tournament begins
2021 Illinois
2021 Alabama
2023 Marquette
2021 UConn
2022 Auburn
Rule 11: Beware of teams you like matching up early and on one day scouts with unique teams.
Press Virginia
Syracuse zone
Alabama math ball
Rule 12: You can allow yourself to be talked into big time programs that underachieved
2021 UCLA
2022 UNC
2015 Michigan State
2016 Syracuse
Rule 13: Everybody is a choker until they aren’t
2019 Virginia
2024 Purdue
2021 Baylor
Rule 14: Before conference tournaments start, write down a list of teams you think can win the national championship.
Rule 15: It’s perfectly fine to pick a somewhat lower seed to get to the Final Four, but make sure that team can win four games in a row first
Why bid stealers are so relevant
Applies a lot for 4-6 seeds
Rule 16: Don’t predetermine your first round upsets before you see their matchups
2023 Oral Roberts
2024 McNeese State
2022 Vermont/SouthDakota State
Rule 17: You know the teams you don’t like. Don’t pick a team to go far just because of the number next to their name
2022 Auburn
2024 North Carolina
2021 Kansas
Rule 18: The reason you want to pick a play-in team to win is more because of the first round opponent than it is the play-in team
2021 UCLA (I picked Michigan State)
2022 Notre Dame (I picked Rutgers)
2023 Pitt (Picked them)
2024 Colorado (didn’t pick a play in winner that year)
Rule 19: Stop picking teams to win their second round game before they win their first.
Rule 20: Don’t fall for the Vontae Mack theory
Do not. Absolutely do not. Guarantee anything in your mind before you see a bracket