By Sam Federman
Yesterday, Jonathan wrote about the ACC-SEC Challenge, which gets underway tonight. There's one other cross-conference mash-up this week, and it has some big games, and some important ones for one of the leagues.
The Big 12/Big East Battle comes at a dire time for the Big East. The conference is fifth in wins above bubble right now with -0.5, but Marquette accounts for +2.1 of them. If you took that out, the conference would rank 20th with the Horizon League, Sun Belt, and WAC. Marquette and St. John's are the only Big East teams with NCAA Tournament resumes right now, and the league will have only itself to blame if it struggles in the battle, and the metrics aren't good enough to warrant more than three bids again.
The Big East has just one quadrant-1 win outside of the Golden Eagles, who have clearly been the best team in the league. That Q1 win is Butler on a neutral over Mississippi State, which is absolutely a good win. The only Q2 wins for the conference are
St. John's over New Mexico (H)
Creighton over Notre Dame (N)
Butler over SMU (H)
Butler over Northwestern (N)
Seton Hall over VCU (N)
None of those are particularly marquee, and Seton Hall already has two quad-four losses that will likely end up canceling out that win in all discernable ways by the end of the season.
The Big East starts conference play in just two weeks, so there's less time for big wins in mid or late-December in the non-conference. Although there are some big games. Here's a list of the games that are currently Q1 for the Big East after the battle but before league play.
Marquette vs Wisconsin
Marquette at Dayton
UConn at Texas
UConn vs Gonzaga (MSG)
Butler vs Wisconsin (Pacers arena)
Providence at Rhode Island
Xavier at Cincinnati
Creighton at Alabama
That's it really. Only five Big East teams are currently in the NET Top 75, and just one is in the top 30. This will change, undoubtedly, but that's not a lot of quad 1 opportunities for the league.
So what are the most crucial games for the conference to win this week?
Well first, you can't take any bad losses.
That's pretty simple because there aren't really any bad losses on the table, considering Seton Hall is already a lost cause, taking a loss at home to Oklahoma State wouldn't matter much. St. John's hosting K-State at Carnesseca is a must-win game as well, given how the Wildcats have looked.
Xavier needs to start building a resume. The Muskies' wins against South Carolina and Wake may not age well, and TCU might not either, as the Frogs lost to Santa Clara and Colorado State in Palm Springs, but it has a chance to be a quad 1 game if TCU figures it out. It's a must-win for the Big East.
Georgetown has taken care of business against mid-major teams so far, but got blown out at home by Notre Dame. The Hoyas probably won't defeat West Virginia, but they can't get blown out. They need the metrics to stay kind to them so they can stick as a quad 2 road game for Big East opponents.
Butler will not win at Houston. Sorry.
We all love DePaul, and a win at Texas Tech would immediately give them a real chance at a tournament resume, but it's also highly unlikely.
The three biggest opportunities for the Big East are home games against four teams that have a really good chance of finishing in the top 30 of the NET.
Cincinnati at Villanova: The Cats probably don't have much of a shot at building a tournament resume, but picking up a big win and a metrics boost would help the league.
Baylor at UConn: This is a get-right game for the Huskies. I don't think there are many concerned that UConn won't make the tournament, but if it loses this game, people will be.
BYU at Providence: The Friars have a chance to turn around their season after a rough trip to Atlantis this week. BYU and then Rhode Island, two games that could end up as Q1 (although Rhody probably doesn't stick as top 75). I don't think Bryce Hopkins fixes all of the team's issues, but if he returns, it will make the Dunk a really tough environment for the first true road game in the careers of Egor Demin, Kanon Catchings, and Kevin Young.
Kansas at Creighton: A battle between two of the top low post players in the sport, Hunter Dickinson and Ryan Kalkbrenner, will be a must-watch. The Bluejays lost to Nebraska, San Diego State, and Texas A&M already, and need to bounce back.
The other game in the Big 12/Big East Battle is the best one, Marquette at Iowa State. This one isn't as crucial for the Big East, as the Golden Eagles have already established themselves as an elite team, and losing on the road to another elite team won't change that.