By Jonathan Lidskin
One of the best college basketball traditions at this point is a super competitive and balanced Big Ten Conference. This year has been no different as good teams have been picked off by inferior opponents all season. While the conference doesn’t have a team like Purdue of last year, many of these teams have been super enjoyable to watch. Better yet (for me), the top four in the conference and the teams that still have a chance to win the league, are the Big Ten powers that I grew up on. So, let’s talk about those teams and their chance to win the league.
Michigan
What an opening act for Dusty May. The coach who took FAU to the Final Four just two years ago has completely turned the tables for Michigan as the Wolverines have an outright lead in the conference. The skepticism around Michigan comes from the fact that Michigan seems to barely escape in close games continuously and is still 22nd in KenPom as a result, but the resumé and the fact that they lead the conference is impressive.
Michigan still has a tall task ahead of them. They go to Nebraska and Michigan State while Sparty, Illinois, Maryland and Rutgers come to Ann Arbor in the final six games. Despite the tough games, Michigan is not the only one that still has to play tough opponents and KenPom actually projects the Wolverines to finish 16-4, winning the conference by two games. If that holds, the Maize and Blue would be the one seed in the Big Ten Tournament for the first time since 2021 (don’t shoot the messenger Illinois fans).
Michigan State
Just when you write off Tom Izzo he reels you back in the most anti-modern way possible. Izzo over the last couple of seasons has been notorious for complaining about analytics, but his team has sort of defied modern analytics to push towards the top of the conference.
They don’t shoot the three well at all, but instead rely on defense and getting to the rim. Despite losing three of the last five, Sparty picked up an important win over Illinois in Champaign last Saturday to set up a massive week. A hungry Purdue will come to East Lansing tonight off of two straight losses and then on Friday, we’ll get the first UM-MSU meeting of the season in Ann Arbor. In addition to the second meeting with Michigan, MSU will also go to College Park and Iowa City while also hosting Wisconsin. It’s a tough draw, but Izzo’s team is only a game back and has all of the key games ahead of them.
Purdue
It was a tough week for Matt Painter’s team, but you can never count out the guy who most people would consider the best coach in the conference. Purdue only has five conference games to go and three of them are on the road, but a win in East Lansing tonight could go a long way in making up ground.
Purdue’s problem is they are two back in the loss column and obviously have that loss to Michigan. So the Wolverines need to lose three more times than Purdue if the Boilermakers want to have a chance at the top seed in Indianapolis. A share of the title and the two seed is the way more likely outcome here.
After going to Michigan State, Purdue will have the return game to Bloomington, UCLA and Rutgers at home and then will finish up at Illinois.
Wisconsin
That Michigan win in Madison continues to look more and more crucial by the day. Wisconsin is currently the top team by KenPom in the Big Ten but sits a full two games back of first even after the win at Purdue on Saturday.
Would Wisconsin love to win the Big Ten? Of course they would. However, the Badgers are having their best season since they went to the National Title game in 2015. Even if the Badgers can’t climb into first or at least get a share, I think Greg Gard and his teams can accomplish things in the tournament that would easily make it a successful season (not that it isn’t already).
On the bright side for the conference race, Wisconsin has by far the easiest remaining schedule of the teams still in the race. The Badgers are favored by at least nine according to KenPom and are only an underdog in one (at Michigan State). Wisconsin is playing some great basketball though and in the Big Ten, you really can’t rule anything out.