Projecting the Committee’s Top 16

By Jonathan Lidskin

Photo: Getty Images

Warmer weather and birds chirping. Those are two signs that spring is fast approaching. It’s also a sign that soon enough, pens will be clicking all across America as people fill out their NCAA Tournament bracket. Another sign that the tournament is coming? The Top 16 seed early reveal is set to take place this weekend.

The Top 16 reveal is a short-standing tradition that has only existed since 2017. Over those years, one of the talking points that constantly gets recycled is that the show is meaningless because there are still more games to be played. That’s not entirely true. Since the creation of the show, over 80% of teams in the original top 16 end up being in the final top 16. Last year, just two teams (Michigan and Kansas) fell out of the top 16 after being four seeds in the early reveal show.

Of course, there is still room for teams to make a jump or take a fall before Selection Sunday on March 15th, but from the data we have, the early reveal top 16 is fairly accurate. With that being said, let’s take a look at what I think the rankings will look like on Saturday.

1 Seeds:

Michigan has been the most dominant team in the sport this season and will, without a doubt, be the number one overall seed headed into their Saturday night showdown with Duke. I think the Blue Devils will be the number two overall seed over Arizona, although the margins with those two are razor-thin. They both have the same amount of Quad 1 wins (10) and are similar across the board in the predictive metrics. Duke is slightly higher in WAB (wins above bubble), which seems to be the single most important metric for the committee. 

The final one seed, I believe, will go to Houston despite the loss on Monday to Iowa State. The Cougars’ resumé metrics are still better across the board than the Cyclones’ and other teams in contention for the final spot.

Final Verdict: Michigan (1), Duke (2), Arizona (3), Houston (4)

2 Seeds:

I went back and forth with who to give the first two seed to, but ultimately settled on UConn. The Huskies took a crushing loss to Creighton on Wednesday night, but for now, that remains a Quad 2 loss as Creighton is 73rd in the NET. If Creighton were to fall behind that 75th spot, that loss becomes Quad 3, and we’d be having a different discussion. UConn has not played well by their standards recently, but is still third in WAB, ultimately giving them the top two seed. 

Iowa State follows the Huskies with Purdue and Illinois not that far behind. Iowa State knocking off Houston on Monday night was a win that definitely moved the Cyclones closer to the one line, and despite a worse WAB than the two behind them, they have 0 losses outside of the first quadrant, as well as two fewer losses than both Illinois and Purdue. I then gave Purdue the nod over Illinois as the Boilermakers are higher in WAB, have one more Q1 win and don’t have a Q2 loss as Illinois does.

Final Verdict: UConn (5), Iowa State (6), Purdue (7), Illinois (8)

3 Seeds:

Todd Golden’s Florida team has been surging since the turn of the year. The Gators are up to #6 in KenPom and have been stacking quality wins. The argument is there for Florida be a top four team in the country right now. I also considered Kansas for this spot. Not only are the Huskers six spots higher in WAB, but four of their five Q1 wins are Quad 1A. Florida only has two of those. However, Nebraska has the 312th ranked non-con strength of schedule, and Florida really challenged itself in that department. 

Nebraska and Kansas’ resumés actually look fairly similar. Kansas, like Florida, played a much tougher non-con SOS than the Huskers, but they haven’t separated themselves in the predictive metrics. Kansas is lower than Nebraska in WAB, so I went with Nebraska. Vandy will get the final three seed from me. Nothing stands out on their team sheet, but they are solid in all of the important metrics and have a 21-5 record.

Final Verdict: Florida (9), Nebraska (10), Kansas (11), Vanderbilt (12)

4 Seeds:

In my eyes, there are six teams for four spots. Gonzaga will get the top four seed. Despite having a Q3 loss, they are 6-1 in the first quad. I am going with Michigan State over Texas Tech as the second four seed. The Spartans have a loss in Q2, which Texas Tech does not, but they also have excellent predictive metrics and comparable resumé metrics to the Red Raiders.

Finally, we have three teams for one spot. Virginia, Arkansas and Alabama. Virginia has played a much weaker schedule than the other two, but has four fewer losses than each of Arkansas and Alabama. The Cavaliers also don’t have a bad resumé. Five Q1 wins, 17th in WAB and 13th in strength of record. The Hogs and Tide don’t stand out in any way to put them over Virginia despite four more losses, so Virginia gets the final spot.

Final Verdict: Gonzaga (13), Michigan State (14), Texas Tech (15), Virginia (16)

Last night, news came out that Michigan prefers the East Region in Philadelphia over the Midwest in Chicago if they were to get the #1 overall seed. With that being said, here’s how I think the regions will look on Saturday.

East	Midwest	West	South
1 Michigan (1)	1 Duke (2)	1 Arizona (3)	1 Houston (4)
4 Virginia (16)	4 Texas Tech (15)	4 Michigan State (14)	4 Gonzaga (13)
3 Florida (9)	3 Kansas (11)	3 Nebraska (10)	3 Vanderbilt (12)
2 Iowa State (6)	2 Illinois (8)	2 UConn (5)	2 Purdue (7)