By Sam Federman
100: Temple Owls (AAC)
Temple pulled off a coup, landing 2x All-MWC guard Jamal Mashburn Jr. from New Mexico in the transfer portal, forming a transfer backcourt of him, Lynn Greer, and Jameel Brown.
Those three have complimentary skillsets, with Greer being the point guard who can drive and dish, Mashburn being a combo guard who can score at a high level from everywhere, and Brown as the sharpshooter who transfers down from Penn State after not quite living up to his billing coming out of Westtown.
Mashburn was extremely inefficient last year, but he also felt like the odd-man out between him, Jaelen House, and Donovan Dent. Now, he's back to being the man, like he was in 22-23.
Sophomore Zion Stanford looks to build off of a solid freshman season, but must grow in a few areas in order for the Owls to live up to this top 100 ranking.
Veterans Matteo Picarelli and Shane Dezonie are really interesting depth pieces in the backcourt who can add an element of shooting and experience to the team.
Fordham transfer Elijah Gray is another swing piece for Temple. He played sparingly as a freshman during Fordham's amazing 22-23 season, but took on an important bench role for the Rams last year. His athleticism and versatility at 6-foot-8 should be a major help to Temple, which is loaded in the backcourt, but struggles for frontcourt depth.
Steve Settle held opponents to 35% at the rim last season, but only shot 49% at the rim himself. With my projection of a more effective backcourt, he should be able to improve his efficiency with better spacing, and not be forced to take as many outside shots. He's a versatile defender, and help up fine in post-up situations last year despite weighing just 180 pounds.
Temple should be an offensive-slanted team because of their guards. There's a massive gap between this team's ceiling and floor, but I'm fairly optimistic about year two for Adam Fisher.
99: North Texas Mean Green (AAC)
North Texas’ backbone will be on the defensive side of the ball, but Drake transfer Atin Wright is the most important player for this group, as the most proven and reliable offensive player.
If Wright can shoulder the load of being the top scorer for UNT, the Mean Green should be passable enough on offense, with plenty of offensive role players ready to fill in the blanks.
You can’t expect to lose as many valuable winning pieces as North Texas did, and not take a slight step back (finished 74 in KenPom last year) but I like some of the additions.
Jasper Floyd embodies the defensive principles that Ross Hodge uses, and he can shoulder a lot of the ball-handling load, allowing Wright to play off ball. Grant Newell, Johnathan Massie, and Latrell Josell are three important additions, with Newell expected to provide the most scoring punch of the group.
Moulaye Sissoko returns to man the middle in Denton and should provide solid interior defense.
All things considered, UNT should have a high enough floor to justify this ranking with how well they’ll defend.
98: Minnesota Golden Gophers (Big Ten)
Minnesota took steps forward in year three under Ben Johnson, but still finished a few steps away from a return to the NCAA Tournament. Going 9-11 in the Big Ten is a very successful season for the Gophers, but that may be the issue within itself.
The late loss of Elijah Hawkins hurts, as he's one of the country's top distributors, but they could've done much worse than Lu'Cye Patterson as a replacement. He should be the second-leading scorer for the Gophers, as a player who can score in multiple different ways, and play relatively clean basketball.
However, the offense will have to be overreliant on Dawson Garcia, and without an elite distributor to separate the defensive attention, Garcia could see his efficiency drop. Johnson must be creative with ways to get Garcia the ball, taking advantage of his unique mobility and skill for a 6-11 frame.
The Gophers do return Mike Mitchell, who will play some minutes at both the point and the two, and maybe even the three in some situations. A 40% three-point shooter on high volume, Mitchell is an extremely important offensive piece for that alone, but Minnesota needs more. He played point guard in his two years at Pepperdine, finishing top 4 in the WCC in assist rate both of those years. While his turnover rates make him untenable as a team's primary ball handler, he will need to provide more playmaking than he did last season, both as an initiator and with ancillary ball-movement.
Canisius transfer Frank Mitchell is essentially a one-for-one replacement for Pharrel Payne. He's one of the nation's best rebounders but isn't quite as strong as a rim protector as Payne was. Mitchell was efficient from the inside last season, but it an even worse free-throw shooter than Payne, and teams won't be afraid to foul him if they have enough big-man depth. UTSA transfer Trey Edmonds will bring similar energy off the bench.
Brennan Rigsby had plenty of outbursts for Oregon last season, but just as many quiet nights. He's a pure two-guard who can hit shots from the outside, as well as creating his own shot on the perimeter and in the mid-range, however, he struggled immensely getting to the rim. His physical frame is not extremely developed, and he had to rely on his jump shot to get his points, explaining his inconsistencies.
Femi Odukale comes in from New Mexico State and provides one of the more unique skillsets in the country, for better or for worse. He's a chaos-maker on the court who can dribble, pass, and defend with his six-foot-six frame. He loves attacking the basket and finishing through contact, but can't make his free throws, and has had major bouts with inconsistency.
Isaac Asuma (four-star freshman) and Caleb Williams (high-scoring D3 transfer) are wild cards that could raise the Gophers' ceiling.
97: Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC)
The Hokies lost a ton of pieces from a team that was just fine, and took a few risks with their roster construction this year.
Hysier Miller has been horrendously inefficient at the AAC level for three years, but after a strong conference tournament and the strange winds that blew around the Temple program, his stock rose. He'll be the point guard for this Virginia Tech team, and while it's a clear downgrade from Sean Pedulla, on Miller's best days, he can take over games offensively.
The combination of Mylyjeal Poteat and Tobi Lawal will be interesting, because neither is exactly a firm fit to play at the four, but they'll likely have to play both of them together at times.
Poteat served as Lynn Kidd's backup last year. He has never played more than 14.5 minutes per game in his four-year college career, but he was an efficient backup with a strong low-post game first at Rice, then at Virginia Tech.
Lawal is an extremely athletic big man, but his undersized frame makes it difficult to play him at the five in the ACC. He's one of the country's best play finishers thanks to his absurd vertical leap, and he can guard multiple positions, but if he plays with Potetat, his lack of connective play or shooting could be problematic.
If the Hokies decide not to play those two together at all, they'll have to rely heavily on freshman Ryan Jones at the four, who has an ACC-ready frame at 6-8/225 and a good jump shot. However, he's not an especially great mover on the perimeter, and might struggle to hold up defensively in long stretches.
Ben Burnham had a few good years for Charleston, and now takes a step up to play in another three-pointer-happy system. Mike Young will likely find many ways to get both him and Duke transfer Jaden Schutt open on the perimeter. Schutt was a highly touted prospect who basically never played for the Blue Devils in his first two seasons, so he has a ton to prove.
Depth is also a question mark for VT, with no proven pieces on the bench either. I do like freshman point guard Ben Hammond a lot, but he is extremely undersized and will likely not be a big contributor on day one. Eventually, I expect him to become one of the better point guards in the country thanks to his speed and playmaking ability.
96: College of Charleston Cougars (CAA)
Chris Mack has been to four Sweet 16's, an Elite 8, has coached a number 1 seed, has brought a team to the #1 AP ranking in the country, and has never had a losing record in conference play.
He's now the coach at Charleston.
I'm not going to say it's an upgrade over Kelsey, considering both Mack has been out of the game for a bit, and it didn't end very well at Louisville, along with how much I like Kelsey. However, coaches with this type of resume don't end up coaching in the CAA very often.
It's more than just the name, there's serious substance to this Cougar roster as well.
Ante Brzovic will once again be one of the best players in the CAA. He averaged 14/6/3 in conference play last year while shooting 53% from the field in just 23 MPG. Mack's roster construction has a bunch of similarities to Kelsey's in terms of fidning shooters who can run the floor, so Brzovic should feel just at home in this system
When Derrin Boyd comes back from his torn ACL (around conference play is the expected timeline), he should immediately be one of the top guards in the CAA. Boyd averaged 17 points per game on incredible 53/44/84 splits before going out with the injury. Boyd is a great fit for an offensive slanted team that wants to get out in transition, but also needs guards to create in the half-court.
Deywilk Tavarez got bettter and better as the season went on, evolving into one of the top players in the MEAC as a freshman for Delaware State last year. Over the final 15 games of the season, he averaged 18 points, 3.6 assists, and 1.8 steals per game on good efficiency. The combination of Tavarez and Boyd should be an explosive offensive backcourt for the Cougars.
Charleston also brought in AJ Smith, who exploded into a 16 point scorer in his sophomore season at the Citadel. He's a good rebounder for his size who will be able to shoot better with more spacing.
Green Bay transfer Elijah Jones will be important in crashing the boards and establishing a defensive identity, while Saint Louis transfer Djordje Curcic provides more shooting off the bench. CJ Fulton's toughness and playmaking is back, and Lazar Djokovic comes in from Xavier to help shore up the frontcourt.
95: Washington State Cougars (WCC)
Expectations around the Washington State program have been recalibrated with the departure of Kyle Smith and the demise of the Pac 12.
I like David Riley a lot, and think that he is absolutely the guy to lead this program into the uncertain future. For now however, it's basically a continuation of what was going on at Eastern Washington, with a few other pieces.
Cedric Coward, LeJuan Watts, Ethan Price, and Dane Erikstrup all followed RIley from Cheney to Pullman (as did Casey Jones, but he won't be playing this season).
Joining that core four is the returning Isaiah Watts, who became a bigger part of the rotation as the season wound down last year, and has serious breakout potential in the WCC. The identity of a flowing offense creating easy looks will continue from EWU, and a high-level shooter like Watts fits that system very well.
Coward will be the team's best player, a 6-6 versatile wing with experience in Riley's system who defends at a high level and scores at all three levels.
The other Watts, LeJuan, established himself as a key offensive piece for EWU as a freshman and will continue to score efficiently, although the step up in competition may be difficult as he is a little undersized for an interior-based four-man.
Ethan Price has been mister reliable as a five-man for the last three years at Eastern and can stretch the floor at an extremely high level, with good passing feel.
Erikstrup also played plenty of minutes at the five for EWU. He was way more ball-dominant than Price, but still scored at an efficient level thanks to his ability to draw fouls down low, and drain free throws. As is basically a requirement with a Riley team, he's also a stretch big who drained more than one three-pointer per game.
The wildcard for this team, and the piece that could launch them from a solid WCC team into a fringe bubble threat, is Nate Calmese. He didn't see much of a role at Washington, but had a stellar freshman campaign for a terrible Lamar team in 2022-23.
If Calmese can fit within Riley's system, while getting to the basket and scoring on the inside like he did in the Southland, then he will elevate the ceiling for the Cougs.
Ri Vavers (Quinnipiac) is a pure shooting wing, and ND Okafor (Cal) can provide a different look at the five.
I'd also be remiss to not mention Kase Wynott, a 6-5 combo guard who broke Idaho's all-time high school basketball scoring record while playing for tiny Lapwai HS. He's just a freshman, and I doubt he has a big role this season, but I'm holding some long-term stock in him as a contributor down the road.
Washington State's ceiling is much higher than this ranking, but essentially the entire team (save I. Watts) hasn't been a contributor at a level higher than the Big Sky, and with the jump to the WCC, it could pose some challenges.
94: N.C. State Wolfpack (ACC)
NC State made the Final Four last year as an 11 seed, but lost its three best players during that run, as well as another starter. In the transfer portal, the Pack brought in four players, 3 of them (Dontrez Styles, Mike James, and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield) combined for 8 conference wins.
Marcus Hill from Bowling Green is the other transfer acquisition. He's a high-scoring guard who struggled badly shooting the three, but can create his own shot inside the arc.
Key returning pieces include Michael O'Connell, Jayden Taylor, and Ben Middlebrooks, all of whom need to take a step up. Taylor struggled immensely down the stretch of the season, and saw his minutes go down as NC State began to surge, but he's scored double-digit points per game in back to back seasons at the high-major level.
Dontrez Styles' shotmaking will be important, as will Brandon Huntley-Hatfield's rebounding.
I just don't see how this team makes the NCAA Tournament unless somebody takes a massive step forward.
93: UCF Knights (Big 12)
UCF was kind of in the Minnesota grouping of "power conference team that is better than we expect but is still a few steps shy of being a tournament team" last year. So what does Johnny Dawkins do to cash in on bringing back his top two scorers (Darius Johnson and Jaylin Sellers) for their senior season? He went all-in, but not in the way that you might think.
Dawkins went all-in on players who have tons of talent, but also glaring red flags.
I don't really want to go into detail about all of the reasons why the players have red flags, but I have serious doubts that everybody on this roster will still be on the roster come the end of the season.
Anyway, on a basketball note, there's too much on-ball scoring on this roster. Dior Johnson, Keyshawn Hall, and Jordan Ivy-Curry join Sellers and Johnson, who already were big scorers last year. I don't think the reason why UCF's offense ranked last in the Big 12 last year was because they didn't have any juice in their backcourt. It's because Sellers and Johnson were the only players who made even 15 three-pointers in Big 12 play. The wings couldn't score at all aside from sometimes Marchelus Avery, the bigs couldn't create any sort of spacing or even create for themselves down low.
The ceiling is incredibly high if the talent can gel together and take advantage of all of the natural scoring ability, but I still don't think there's a reliable off-ball player, and the big-man situation is not very strong.
92: Utah Utes (Big 12)
Year four of Craig Smith is year one of the Big 12 era for Utah, and while he's improved immensely each year in KenPom, this season will be his biggest challenge.
Branden Carlson and Deivon Smith, the two best players on last year's roster, who created so much of the offense for the team, are gone. So is Rollie Worster, who led the team in On-Off for the 16 games that he played, and had been with Smith since 2020-21 at USU.
Gabe Madsen and Hunter Erickson return on the wings providing some secondary offense, but not much in terms of primary creation. Madsen is one of the best shooters in the conference, draining 105 triples last year at a 39% clip, and he's joined by his twin brother Mason, who comes in from Boston College.
Mason is also a high-level shooter, and is a fairly similar player all around to his brother, which makes having both on the floor at the same time both promising and risky.
Lawson Lovering's 7-1 frame will man the middle once again, but this time without the support of Carlson next to him.
He'll have East Carolina transfer Ezra Ausar, who played mostly the 5 at ECU, but will have to play a bit of the four as well for Utah. He's a physical player with a big frame and had solid numbers for ECU.
I'm extremely bullish on Miro Little as this team's point guard. He has a 94-foot game that will affect winning on both ends. He's physically developed, has great vision, and rebounds very well for a guard. I'm most fascinated to see how his scoring ability develops for Utah.
Mike Sharavjamts is the ultimate wild card. He lost minutes as his freshman year at Dayton went on, so he went to San Francisco where he was just fine. I thought that the WCC was a good level for him, but he decided to transfer, and stayed in the portal long enough to land on Utah. I don't think he'll start, but he can do a little bit of everything, so he'll be able to play a bunch of roles off the bench.
I don't think that Smith adequately replaced what he'd lost, and I think that Utah could have a rough time in their first experience in the Big 12.
But I do think there's something to be said for the general direction of the program that Smith has improved the KenPom rank so significantly every year.
91: Duquesne Dukes (A-10)
Duquesne had a terrific season last year, sending off Keith Dambrot and the many seniors with an NCAA Tournament win. In the offseason, Dru Joyce built a roster through the transfer portal that should give the Dukes a chance to compete in the top half of the A-10 once again.
David Dixon was central to Duquesne's elite defense last year, providing whatever the Dukes needed on the inside, and the ability to guard on the outside as well. He will not only reprise that role, but take it to another level, likely playing many more minutes than last year.
Surrounding him, Tre Dinkins, who proved last year at Canisius that he can be a primary initiator and not just an off-ball scorer, joins Kareem Rozier as the team's point guards.
Jahsean Corbett went for 21 points and 11 rebounds on just 14 shots against Duquesne, nearly willing Chicago State to a victory on a night where Wesley Cardet provided nothing in January. Now, Corbett will play for the Dukes, bringing his athleticism, rim pressure, and rebounding to Pittsburgh as a combo forward.
The wing/forward depth is a huge strength for Duquesne, as Corbett is joined by GW transfer Maximus Edwards, who has already proven to be a very good A-10 player, along with Furman transfer Alex Williams, another efficient double-digit scorer.
Both Jake's, DiMichele and (Jakub) Necas are back, and thanks to the additions, will not be asked to do more than they're capable of. They were key glue guys during the stretch run of the season who provided a lot of the important measures that don't show up on the stat sheet.
The transfer class is rounded up by backup big man Eli Wilborn, who was an All-Freshman selection in the NEC last year, and guard Cam Crawford from Marshall.
Sure, they didn't exactly replace Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark, but they probably added enough in the aggregate to have another good season.
Comentários