By Sam Federman
I know it’s late in the rankings to try a new format, but I think this format probably cuts some of the fluff and expedites the writing process
30. Ole Miss Rebels (SEC)
What I Like: Ole Miss could’ve been satisfied to return three 12-point scorers from last year in Matt Murrell, Juju Murray, and Jaemyn Brakefield, but the Rebels had a great offseason, adding a ton of talent to that returning core. Murray is relegated to the backup point guard spot with the addition of Virginia Tech transfer Sean Pedulla, who is a great facilitator and outside shooter. Chris Beard also brought in Dre Davis from Seton Hall, where he was a key defensive piece with the ability to attack the basket. TJ Caldwell also returns to the backcourt, and now as a junior, could make another jump after becoming a much more efficient shooter last season. Sam Houston transfer Davon Barnes is another high-end shooter that will space the floor off the bench.
Where I Have Questions: Malik Dia was a ball-dominant five for Belmont last year, leading the country in usage rate. However, he wasn’t extremely efficient offensively, and he ideally profiles as a wing in the SEC. Same with Mikael Brown-Jones, who was one of the best players in the SoCon at UNC Greensboro. I actually think MBJ has a chance to be this team’s best player if they use him as a four next to somebody who can emerge down low. Ole Miss brought in talented and productive pieces, but nobody that I think is a center in the SEC. Finally, is Chris Beard’s defense overly reliant on the charge, and now ruined by the new charge rules? Considering how much worse the defense was last year versus other Beard years, it’s worth asking.
X-Factor: Hampton transfer Javon Benson is an option to be a small ball five in stretches, as he averaged 1.4 blocks in just 15.2 minutes per game last year. However, at just 6 foot 7, he also doesn’t have the size to be a major solution at that spot in the SEC. How well he can hold up defensively will change the way Ole Miss plays.
29. Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten)
What I Like: Indiana’s backcourt held it back immensely last year. Swapping Xavier Johnson and Trey Galloway (who is still there and can play a smaller, but still notable role) for Myles Rice and Kanaan Carlyle is an immediate infusion of talent. Both are dynamic ball handlers who can operate out of the pick-and-roll. Neither shot at a high clip from beyond the arc, but both are probably a little bit better than their percentages indicate, and must be guarded to some level from three. Rice will help Carlyle be less erratic, as he’ll be the primary ball handler, with Carlyle playing as a combo. Malik Reneau will have much better service in the low post, accentuating the best part of his game if used correctly. Additionally, Mackenzie Mgbako looks to have a big sophomore year after continuing to improve throughout his freshman season.
Where I Have Questions: The last thing that Indiana needed to add in the transfer portal was a plodding low-post-oriented big man. While Oumar Ballo is a great player, he’ll clog up paint when playing alongside Reneau, and force Mgbako to play a position below his natural spot once again. If IU was committed to adding a big, it should’ve been somebody who can give shooting and defensive versatility.
X-Factor: Indiana’s best lineups will be the ones where Mgbako plays at the four and Luke Goode slides in at the three. He’s the best three-point shooter on the roster, draining 39% of his attempts last year at 6 foot 7. On a roster that desperately needs shooting, Goode will be the barometer of how high the Hoosiers’ ceiling is.
28. Iowa Hawkeyes (Big Ten)
What I Like: Returning star Payton Sandfort is one of the best players in the Big Ten. He’s seen his minutes increase by 25% each year, and blossomed into a star as a junior. Now back for year four under Fran McCaffery, he has the chance to be one of the nation’s best offensive wings for one of the nation’s best offenses. Sophomore big man Owen Freeman and his high school teammate point guard Brock Harding had solid freshman years. Freeman was the Big Ten rookie of the year, and should be an immediate upgrade on both ends over Ben Krikke last year. Harding pairs with Morehead State transfer Drew Thelwell as a duo that can play together but also man their own units as distributors and ball handlers. Junior guard Josh Dix is also ready for a step forward.
Where I Have Questions: Outside of whichever guard doesn’t start, I don’t have a ton of optimism for Iowa’s bench. Pryce Sandfort is probably a year away from major contributions but has potential to stretch the floor at 6 foot 7. Even Brauns couldn’t crack the rotation much last year, and is back as the backup center. Sophomore Ladji Dembele has to take a step forward as a possible option at the four or the five. Freshmen Cooper Koch and Chris Tadjo also may need to play an immediate role.
X-Factor: Iowa’s defense needed a guy like Seydou Traore. The Manhattan transfer can be the low man as a rim protector, but can also slide with guards on the perimeter. He’s a tank, built similarly to the Murray twins, but isn’t close to the offensive threat they were. Iowa will probably put him in the dunker spot instead of having him create shots like he did at Manhattan. Traore wasn’t a terrific on-ball defender last year, but walled up when he had to, rotated off the ball, and was carrying a huge offensive load.
27. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Big Ten)
What I Like: Rutgers has two elite freshmen who promise to be among the best players in the Big Ten. Dylan Harper is a legit 6 foot 6 point guard with great vision and an easy feel for getting to the rim. He’s going to be a strong defensive piece with positional size as well, fitting into Rutgers’ equation on that end. Ace Bailey has insane explosiveness and quickness at 6 foot 9 off of his first step that allows him to get enough room on his defenders to take and make jump shots from everywhere on the floor. If he can get in the paint enough, he’ll be a first-team All-Big Ten selection. Jamichael Davis and Jeremiah Williams decided to stay at Rutgers, adding depth in the backcourt while Jordan Derkack and Zach Martini transferred from winning northeast mid-major programs.
Where I Have Questions: Emmanuel Ogbole played just 80 minutes all of last season, and he’s now the expected starting center for Rutgers. He’s not much more than a catch-and-dunk guy with occasional rim protection, but his foul trouble will haunt him in big minutes. He shot the ball just 16 times all of last season, and only grabbed six defensive rebounds. He’s likely taken a step forward, but he still had a lot of trouble in Rutgers’ exhibition against St. John’s.
X-Factor: The Scarlet Knights are going to need to get Lathan Sommerville on the floor early because Ogbole won’t hold down the center spot long enough. Sommerville grew up playing guard, and is still getting used to being a 6 foot 10, 270-pound behemoth who should be able to post his way through anybody. He has good touch and finesse from 18 feet and in but must be more physical against Big Ten bigs.
X-Factor: San Diego transfer PJ Hayes shot 40% from beyond the arc on 6 attempts per game last year. He just needs to come into the game, space the floor, drain shots, and be an energy guy off the wing. The value that he’ll add by doing that is immense as RU doesn’t have a ton of options to drain threes reliably off the catch.
26. Arkansas Razorbacks (SEC)
What I Like: Arkansas has a lot of big-time players. Johnell Davis took a leap into a fringe All-American last year and could lead the SEC in scoring if things go his way this year. He’s an athletic 6 foot 4 creator with deep three-point range and a whole catalog of incredibly difficult finishes. He put up some of his best performances in big games for FAU, including a 35-point outburst in the Owls’ win over Arizona. Next to him, Arkansas needs a big leap from DJ Wagner, who is a combo guard who plays with the ball on a string. In the frontcourt, Jonas Aidoo is a proven elite SEC center who can deter rim attempts, be a dominant post-up scorer, and sink mid-range jump shots. Trevon Brazile and Adou Thiero are also experienced players who add different elements at the four.
Where I Have Questions: Arkansas filled the back of its roster with players that will not play, and are expecting three freshmen to play big roles in year one. There is no true point guard on the roster, and while Boogie Fland is capable as a one, he isn’t experienced running a high-level team. Unless Division II transfer Melo Sanchez shoots his way onto the floor, the Hogs only have three guards that will get minutes, and if one of them goes down, they’re in for trouble. Arkansas might be the team that has the fewest margin for error with injury in the entire SEC.
X-Factor: Zvonimir Ivisic followed Coach Cal from Kentucky, and must become a consistently effective piece in the rotation. He’s one of very few options that Arkansas can play at the five, and has a ton of natural talent, but got played off the floor in a plethora of scenarios. He needs to stay out of foul trouble and play smart.
25. Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten)
What I Like: Michigan will play four players that can dribble, pass, and shoot on the floor at the same time on most possessions. Just like at FAU, you’ll never know which of Dusty May’s players is going to initiate offense on a given possession or attack the basket. Those guards this year are Tre Donaldson, Roddy Gayle, and Rubin Jones. Those three will play with Danny Wolf, a 7-footer who can handle the ball like a guard. If there were a point guard on this team, it would be Donaldson, who is due for a breakout year in a bigger role. Gayle had a down year last year, but should thrive in a guard-friendly system. Jones is a terrific two-way piece that plays exactly the way May needs. Freshman LJ Cason and grad student Nimari Burnett will also cycle into this rotation.
Where I Have Questions: While it works on the offensive end because Wolf can dribble, pass, and shoot, I’m not sure if playing him with Vlad Goldin works on the defensive end in the Big Ten. Wolf isn’t quick enough to switch everything 1-through-4, which is the way that May likes to play. He was a rim protector for Yale, and he’ll have to scramble around to guard Big Ten wings. However, Goldin should translate extremely well thanks to his dominant interior game and good vision.
X-Factor: At FAU, Dusty May didn’t have a player quite like Sam Walters. All of his perimeter players were smaller and not known primarily for elite shooting, but Walters changes that. He’s a 6 foot 10 stretch four that will shoot the cover off of the ball, but also make Michigan’s offense more predictable, considering it takes a ball handler off the floor.
24. Creighton Bluejays (Big East)
What I Like: For the fifth straight year, Ryan Kalkbrenner will be the center of attention for the Bluejays. The 7 foot 1 center is one of the country’s best rim protectors and overall defenders while providing efficient offense around the rim and a difficult matchup for anybody. His length within the Creighton defensive scheme makes it extremely tough for opposing guards to get to the basket attacking the PnR, forcing mid-range jump shots, and he can stifle post-ups as well. Feeding him the ball, Steven Ashworth is now in year two as a transfer. Baylor Scheierman took a huge leap from his first to second year at Creighton, and while I don’t believe Ashworth will quite do that, he’ll be one of the best point guards in the Big East. Ashworth is a tremendous shooter with limitless range and parses the pick-and-roll very well. Role players Mason Miller and Jasen Green will take steps forward in the frontcourt as well.
Where I Have Questions: Creighton brought in two transfers expected to start that don’t exactly fit the M.O. of what has won them games. Pop Isaacs has been extremely inefficient over the course of his college career, shooting just 35% from the field on 12 attempts per game. He’s a ball-demanding guard who can’t score efficiently, which doesn’t ease the pain of losing Trey Alexander. Additionally, Jamiya Neal is another addition who struggles shooting from three. Creighton lost a lot of shooting and playmaking from Alexander and Scheierman, and replacing them with Neal and Isaacs didn’t really make any sense to me.
X-Factor: With the transfer additions being poor outside shooters, the most important piece for Creighton’s ceiling this year is international freshman Fedor Zugic. The 21 year old is known for being an elite shooter, and he’s dealt with the speed and physicality of professional basketball in Europe. Also, freshman Jackson McAndrew is another sharpshooter that can step in immediately and help Creighton win.
23. Maryland Terrapins (Big Ten)
What I Like: Belmont transfer point guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie will be one of the best in the Big Ten and around the country. He was the most important player for a good Bruins team last year, being the catalyst for a winning streak that started right after he returned from injury. Gillespie shot 72% at the rim last year and drained 43% of his off-the-dribble threes, a deadly combination along with high-end playmaking and defense. He’s surrounded by shooters on the wing, with Selton Miguel and Rodney Rice, who will add that element that the Terps didn’t have last year. In the frontcourt, freshman Derik Queen pairs up with Julian Reese in an intriguing duo. Queen, the five-star, is a skilled but extremely powerful big with feel to operate the offense and strength to finish through anybody.
Where I Have Questions: As much as I love Queen and Reese, I’m not sure if Maryland is best served playing two non-shooting bigs together, especially considering both operate mostly from the foul line and in. However, there is basically nothing behind them in terms of frontcourt options. Tafara Gapare has been fine at UMass and Georgia Tech, but there’s no reason to think he’ll be the antidote to the problems if they arise. I’d expect a lot of four guard lineups from Maryland this season.
X-Factor: The fourth guard (and third in the starting group) in those lineups will be sophomore Deshawn Harris-Smith, who had a disappointing freshman campaign. Despite all of the hype around him in the preseason, he flat out wasn’t ready for college basketball and fell into a season-long shooting slump. He needs to be a respectable outside shooter in order to better actualize his downhill driving abilities.
22. Texas A&M Aggies (SEC)
What I Like: For the last few years, Texas A&M has basically been the same team. They chuck the ball at the rim, grab the offensive rebound, and get fouled on the second chance attempt. Pharrel Payne is a perfect fit for the culture in the frontcourt, and Zhuric Phelps can play the Boots Radford role as a complement to Wade Taylor, one of the best guards in the SEC. After Manny Obaseki came into the starting lineup last year, A&M drastically improved on the offensive end, and he’ll need to continue to have that impact. Solomon Washington, Andersson Garcia, Henry Coleman, and Jace Carter are also back in the picture, comprising one of the largest returning cores in high-major basketball.
Where I Have Questions: While all of that returning production is great, Texas A&M will face the same problems that it has over the past few years. Three-point shooting will be a major issue, and Taylor has a tendency to shoot the Aggies out of games. Their offense gets stagnant at times, and I don’t see that changing. Also, how much better can the pieces from last year’s team get? Most of them were already upperclassmen who are who they are at this point.
X-Factor: Besides adding Phelps, Buzz Williams brought in a deadeye shooter in CJ Wilcher from Nebraska to join the backcourt. While Phelps has a distinct fit as a Radford replacement, Wilcher, a 39% three-point shooter, is exactly the type of addition that Texas A&M needed to play alongside Taylor. His shooting ability will open up a closed floor, if he’s able to cope with the amount of attention he’ll get on the perimeter.
21. St. John’s Red Storm (Big East)
What I Like: St. John’s will be extremely annoying to play against because it has a ton of excellent defenders and a lot of length. Kadary Richmond and Deivion Smith are two of the Big East’s best on-ball defenders, while R.J. Luis and Aaron Scott can shut down your best wing. In the low post, Zuby Ejiofor might have the highest running motor in the conference. SJU will have the ability to suffocate opposing offenses in the half-court and has the athleticism to press in spurts like Pitino wants to. Additionally, on the offensive end, Richmond, Scott, and Luis are all excellent at attacking the basket, and the Johnnies will put an immense amount of pressure on the rim. Both Smith and Richmond are terrific passers once they get in the lane as well, with Smith using his speed to break through defensive lines and zip passes to his post players.
Where I Have Questions: Once Richmond and Smith get downhill, will there be anybody to kick the ball out to? Scott is the starting group’s best outside shooter, at 38% for his career, but none of the other four are great floor spacers. Smith shot a high percentage last year, but on very low volume, and pairing him with Richmond is a backcourt that you can pack the paint against. A few of SJU’s other pieces, like Sim Wilcher, Brady Dunlap, and Jaiden Glover, will need to come in and hit shots.
X-Factor: Dunlap fell out of the Johnnies rotation by the end of the season last year, and was mostly unplayable in Big East play. Part of that was poor defense, which I think this roster will be able to mask better, but he also only shot 31% from three last year. He needs to shoot closer to 36 or 37% this season.
Other Thoughts: I need to mention Ruben Prey, as a 6 foot 10 dynamic freshman big who operates as the roll man and as a rim runner. I think he’ll play, but I’m not certain what his ceiling is.