By Sam Federman
40. USC Trojans (Big Ten)
Eric Musselman has never stayed in a job for a long time, so it isn’t a surprise to see him in a new city after a down season at Arkansas. The Trojans seized the opportunity given to them when Andy Enfield left to make waves in the sport with a huge hire right before moving to the Big Ten.
USC brought in a roster full of transfers, similar to what Arkansas did under Musselman over the last few years. The Trojans will play a big backcourt, starting with Xavier transfer Desmond Claude functioning as the point guard. He had a breakout sophomore year, averaging 16.6 points per game, is a very strong finisher in the paint as a 6 foot 6 guard.
He’ll play next to Northern Colorado transfer Saint Thomas, another bruising presence who is built to score in many different ways. Thomas and Claude together will be one of the best “backcourts” in the country at getting to the rim, if they indeed play as a backcourt.
Bryce Pope, Clark Slajchert, and Wesley Yates are other options in the backcourt. Yates hasn’t played a game of college basketball yet, but he is a 6 foot 4 scoring guard that had a ton of buzz before getting hurt at Washington last year.
At the four, Boise State transfer Chibuzo Agbo might be the most underrated transfer addition in the country. He’s a 6 foot 7, 235-pound forward who drains 41% of his threes and plays elite defense.
The Trojans also have Rashaun Agee, who is a post-oriented four that rebounds at a high level.
Terrance Williams took a big step forward as an outside shooter for Michigan last year, and will be a major piece of USC’s wing plan. The Trojans will probably slide Thomas to the wing plenty, and also use Kevin Patton and Matt Knowling, when they play smaller lineups with some of the other guards.
Josh Cohen was a dominant post scorer in the NEC and A-10, but may be a little bit overmatched in the Big Ten on day one. He’s going to need to find a way to impact higher level games when he’s not able to score in the low post. Harrison Hornery will back him up.
If it clicks, USC will be extremely difficult to play against because of their size and physicality in the backcourt.
39. Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten)
Michigan State has not been better than a seven-seed in the NCAA Tournament since before the pandemic, and this season, the Spartans are set up for another roller-coaster season.
In the backcourt, both AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker are gone, but Michigan State retained Jaden Akins, Tre Holloman, and Jeremy Fears.
Akins has averaged 10 points over the last two seasons, shooting 39% from beyond the arc. He’s an experienced combo guard that has been a really solid secondary scoring option for the Spartans over the past few seasons.
Holloman plays on the ball much more, and took minutes at point guard when Hoggard was off the floor. He also made a jump as a shooter last year, in addition to his playmaking. Now, he has a chance to be the starting point guard.
Fears will also have plenty of opportunity on the ball to show off his explosiveness and playmaking ability.
On the wing, Frankie Fidler became MSU’s first transfer commit in a few years. At 6 foot 7, Fidler has a versatile offensive game, scoring at three levels and displaying good passing ability for his size. He can be the Spartans’ leading scorer, but needs to adjust to the speed and physicality of the high-major game.
Xavier Booker likely slides over to the four because of the center depth on this roster. The move allows Booker to play more on the perimeter, and not have to worry a ton about guarding the big men of the Big Ten. Also, the uber-athletic Coen Carr will see the floor a bit more this season.
Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler, and Longwood transfer Syzmon Zapala is far from a formidable trio at the five, but it should be able to get the job done at some level.
As we saw last year, Izzo doesn’t like to play his freshmen very much, and I think this will mostly hold true with Jase Richardson and Kur Teng.
38. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC)
Georgia is one of the most fascinating teams in college basketball this season. The Bulldogs return guards Silas Demary and Blue Cain, who showed plenty of promise as freshmen.
By the end of the season, they were both in the starting lineup and thriving. Demary is a 6 foot 5 guard who lives for attacking the basket, while Cain is a high-level outside shooter.
Mount St. Mary’s transfers Dakota Leffew and De’Shayne Montgomery will add some more elements to the backcourt. Leffew is a high level offensive player as a combo guard. Montgomery is an incredibly long presence on the defensive end, using his wingspan and instincts to end possessions for opponents. He’s also a talented offensive player, especially once he gets downhill, and he shot the ball at a solid rate too.
Tyrin Lawrence’s stock is much lower than it was a year ago, but he’s a productive scoring guard with SEC experience.
Just like in the backcourt, the Dawgs have a ton of pieces that can play in the frontcourt. App State transfer Justin Abson anchored an elite rim defense for Dustin Kerns last season. He’s one of many extremely physical pieces that will make Georgia a frustrating team to play against. Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey is a tenacious defender and rebounder, while highly touted freshmen Asa Newell and Somto Cyril both have a chance to be NBA players thanks to their athletic gifts on the defensive end.
Georgia should be one of the best defensive teams in the country, and there should be enough scoring to get the job done, but I’m really not sure who will play which minutes, and I’m not sure anybody is.
37. TCU Horned Frogs (Big 12)
For the first time in program history, TCU has made three consecutive NCAA Tournaments. In the quest for four in a row, Jamie Dixon had to replace tons of key pieces, and he built a really solid group.
UNC Wilmington transfer Trazarien White was one of the most impressive players in mid-major basketball last season. He’s a Swiss army knife at 6 foot 7 with great functional strength and athleticism, giving him the ability to score in the paint. White is a two-way piece that fits TCU’s culture, which is similar to what Wilmington did.
In the backcourt, Green Bay transfer Noah Reynolds makes the jump to high-major basketball after dominating the Horizon League. He was initially committed to Wisconsin in the portal last year and looked like a high-major scoring guard in a low-major league. Next to him, Frankie Collins is a tough point-of-attack defender with lightning speed that can play the point guard spot.
Brendan Wenzel has the requisite size to be a bigger wing in the Big 12, but unlike some of TCU’s other fours in the past, his game is much more perimeter-oriented. He’s a good three-point shooter but has never gotten to the paint at a high level.
Manning the inside, Ernest Udeh returns after starting 29 games last season. He is a physical force, but hasn’t shown the ability to be an offensive threat.
TCU’s bench is full of inexperienced players, including four freshmen and two redshirt freshmen. A few of them have to step up in a big way and become rotation pieces for the Horned Frogs. Notably, at least one of Malick Diallo, David Punch, and Isaiah Manning will have to provide immediate minutes in the frontcourt.
Sophomore transfers Vasean Allette from Old Dominion and RJ Jones from Kansas State ease that process for the freshman guards.
The Horned Frogs have a starting lineup that matches with its identity, but the question is whether that alone will be enough to make the NCAA Tournament.
36. Texas Longhorns (SEC)
Check out our Texas preview for a more in-depth look: https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/TaYBJBwVwNb
The Longhorns join the SEC with a newcomer-heavy roster. Jordan Pope has been producing at a high level for bad Oregon State teams and finally gets a chance to play for a potential winner. Tramon Mark and Arthur Kaluma both have something to prove, while Julian Larry and Jayson Kent were part of the backbone for Indiana State. It’s not all new, as Kadin Shedrick returns in the post, and Chendall Weaver looks to take a step forward as a junior. The biggest swing piece for the Horns is freshman Tre Johnson, a five-star who has drummed up a ton of buzz from the staff. Johnson is a combo guard known for his scoring, but he has a daunting task in front of him if his role is to be as big as expected.
35. Mississippi State Bulldogs (SEC)
Chris Jans’ Mississippi State team took a major step forward offensively in year two, and they look to be gearing up for another one in year three. Josh Hubbard, the fantastic freshman, is now a sophomore. He’ll continue to have one of the greenest lights in college basketball, with range from outside the gym to stretch out defenses.
Now, he’s joined by two other scoring guards. First, Kanye Clary from Penn State was the Nittany Lions’ best scorer last year, and thrives with the ball in his hands. He can help slide Hubbard off the ball more, allowing him to get higher-quality three-point looks. However, on the defensive side of the ball, neither Hubbard nor Clary stands even 6 feet tall, and both struggle immensely to guard.
Claudell Harris has a little more size, at 6 foot 3, and can really shoot, but he’s another player who doesn’t truly fit the defensive culture.
On the wing, Riley Kugel didn’t have the breakout year that many expected at Florida. If he’s refocused and is able to find a better version of himself on both ends this year, he can really help Miss State win as an explosive scoring wing who can guard. RJ Melendez is more of a fit on the defensive end, at 6 foot 7 with length.
Cameron Matthews is back, and he’s begun to get his flowers from the college basketball world as one of the sport’s top defensive players. He is one of the few players at the high-major level who can truly guard every single position on the floor at a high level. Whatever they get from him offensively, which improved last year, is a bonus.
Michael Nwoko and Jeremy Foumena make up an interesting pairing at the five, both with size and upside.
Freshmen Eric Paymon and Dellquan Warren will also have the chance to make an impact, especially on the defensive end.
MSU is a typically well-coached defensive team, but this roster construction is much worse on that end than last year. There’s a sacrifice for more scoring though, and the team should be around the same level as last year.
34. Providence Friars (Big East)
Bryce Hopkins’ injury was one of the most consequential in college basketball last year. If the superstar jumbo wing didn’t go down, the Friars almost definitely squeeze out one or two more games, and make it to the NCAA Tournament. But Hopkins is back for another year in his return from injury, and will be one of the best players in the Big East, and in the sport entirely, if he goes back to peak form.
Providence brought in Wesley Cardet Jr. from Chicago State, who has NBA-level size and athleticism, and will immediately cause matchup problems in the Big East. I question how high his ceiling is for PC, but he should make an impact right away with shot creation and defense.
Additionally, Jabri Abdur-Rahim transfers in from Georgia as one of the best shooters for his size in all of college hoops. He doesn’t do much more, but if Kim English can get him to use his size better on the defensive end, it’ll make the Friars a really difficult team to score on the wing against.
Richard Barron, Justyn Fernandez, and Corey Floyd return to provide depth on the wings, and crucially won’t need to step up on the offensive end, which ultimately sealed Providence’s fate last year.
Returning point guard Jayden Pierre is a tough guard, and can control the game about as well as Providence needs. He’ll have to take a small step up offenisvely, but definitely needs to help fill the void that Devin Carter leaves on the defensive end. Bensley Joseph comes in from Miami to add depth in the backourt.
At center, Providence has three high upside centers. Christ Essandoko is a huge human, and can space the floor, but has to reign himself in to make a major impact at a higher level. Anton Bonke and Oswin Erhunmwuse are both intriguing prospects as well.
33. BYU Cougars (Big 12)
Like Georgia, BYU is one of the most fascinating teams in college basketball, with so many fun pieces and a coach who hasn’t been in college basketball in nearly two decades.
Kevin Young brought a significant increase in NIL towards the basketball program, and BYU had a huge offseason, bringing in a plethora of talented players while also retaining key pieces of Mark Pope’s last team.
Dallin Hall is one of the most underappreciated players in the country. He was the operator of BYU’s offense last year, as an elite playmaking point guard who is also a very good off-ball player. He’s a great fit next to Russian freshman Egor Demin, a 6 foot 9 ball handling guard with lottery buzz. Demin is extremely fluid and explosive for his size, and attacks the rim with ease against smaller defenders.
Wings Trevin Knell and Richie Saunders, two key pieces from last year, return as well. They’re both efficient scorers who can move the ball, with Knell being one of the very best shooters in college basketball.
Rutgers transfer Mawot Mag was integral for the RU defense over the last few seasons. He is a physical and versatile forward who will bring a defesnvie presence that BYU didn’t have last year. Kanon Catchings decomitted from Purdue, and the 6 foot 9 freshman landed in Provo. Catchings has been an underrated prospect for a while, showing high level burst and explosiveness with finishing ability. Finally, Serbian freshman Mihailo Boskovic adds another element in the frontcourt.
At the center spot, Utah transfer Keba Keita and returner Fousseyni Traore are both a little shorter than most Big 12 centers, but are extremely physical in their own ways.
Wild cards for BYU include Elijah Crawford, Dawson Baker, and Brady Kozlowski.
The Cougars are more talented than last year’s team, but it remains to be seen whether the freshmen will translate, and if Kevin Young is a good basketball coach.
32. Kentucky Wildcats (SEC)
Mark Pope’s old team slides in at 33, and his new team comes just one spot ahead at #32. The Wildcats’ roster construction, similar to what Josh Schertz did at Saint Louis, branches out from what the expectation of a Pope roster looks like.
There’s still plenty of the typical Pope injected into what the Cats are doing though, especially with Jaxson Robinson coming over from BYU. Robinson is a talented wing with great range and the ability to score off the bounce. He didn’t get to the rim much last year, staying on the perimeter, but it didn’t matter with how good BYU’s spacing was.
The lynchpin of Pope’s BYU offense was playmaking big Aly Khalifa, and while there is no replacement for losing him, Amari Williams can provide some of the foul-line, top of the key playmaking, while also giving elite defense. Williams is one of the best defenders in the sport, long and athletic with tremendous instincts, he will be up to the challenge of SEC bigs. He’s backed up by Brandon Garrison, who had a fine freshman season at Oklahoma State.
Next to Williams, Andrew Carr is a stretch four at 6 foot 10 that can really shoot and is under control handling the ball. He has traces of Noah Waterman in his game, but is probably better off the dribble.
The major differences from BYU last year come in the backcourt. Instead of having a steady point guard, Kentucky has Kerr Kriisa, one of the sport’s biggest wild cards. He’s a solid playmaker and shooter, but has far too many lows for how moderate his highs are. The Cats are also looking to play Lamont Butler at the point, which confuses me. He’s not a scorer, nor is he a great passer, but he is an excellent defender, one of the best point of attack defenders in the country.
UK’s spacing is aided significantly by Koby Brea, one of the best shooters in the country who drained shots for Dayton over the past few years. He has great size for a two, able to scale up to the three, or even a very smallball four, if Kentucky wants to get crazy.
Otega Oweh is a physical guard who provides a much different look at any position in the backcourt or on the wing from the other players.
Collin Chandler is the biggest swing piece for the Cats. He’s arguably the most gifted one-on-one scorer on the team, but he hasn’t proven it at the college level yet, and hasn’t played basketball in two years.
FDU transfer Ansley Almonor is a great depth piece in the frontcourt with elite shooting ability and experience at the four and the five.
Lastly, freshmen Travis Perry and Trent Noah were huge high school scorers, but have a learning curve ahead of them.
I know that Mark Pope has a vision for this Kentucky team, and I trust it, but I don’t exactly see what it is at the moment, and until I do, I’m going to wait on truly pushing the hype.
31. Louisville Cardinals (ACC)
From day one, new head coach Pat Kelsey injected much-needed energy into the Cardinals’ program. All college basketball coaches are psychopaths (in a good way), but Kelsey might just be the most insane of them all (also, in a good way). He radiates energy and intensity in all aspects of his life, and has the Louisville fanbase excited.
He brought in a team full of transfers, starting with Sun Belt Player of the Year Terrence Edwards Jr. from James Madison. He was the best player on the floor in JMU’s NCAA Tournament win against Wisconsin, showing a well rounded skillset as a combo guard/wing that can score at all three levels, pass, and create off the dribble, along with good defense.
Next to him, Chucky Hepburn is an experienced point guard that can control the flow of a high-major game. Washington transfer Koren Johnson brings an element of shooting to the backcourt, while Reyne Smith followed his coach and can play off the bench within Kelsey’s system.
On the wing, Colorado transfer J’Vonne Hadley is another experienced player who brings toughness and physicality. He’s an elite rim finishing wing, as he was 65% at the rim last season, while also draining the three at a low volume clip.
Noah Waterman is a unique 6 foot 11 power forward that doesn’t play to his size, but shooting as well as he does at his size is still a major weapon. Long Beach State transfer Aboubacar Traore brings a much different element to the wing, as he is a stout defender and stat sheet stuffer in all categories. Traore is extremely versatile, guarding multiple positions and playing both on and off the ball.
Kasean Pryor is an athletic 6 foot 10 big that moves very well, creating matchup problems on offense. However, he’s not a great defender. James Scott is a rim-running and protecting backup five man that will eventually develop into a stud, but is probably a year or two away from peak form.
Highly touted freshman Khani Rooths will have to earn his minutes on a deep team.
Louisville is finally not just a high-major caliber roster, but a legitimately good roster, featuring depth, size, ball handling, and shooting. The Cardinals will be very dangerous in the ACC.