Jonathan Lidskin’s Bracket Bible: A Guide to Picking your NCAA Tournament Bracket

By Jonathan Lidskin

Four years ago, I created this set of guidelines for picking your bracket for the NCAA Tournament. While these are far from guarantees, they serve as good reminders to use sound reasoning when picking the most chaotic postseason in sports.

With Selection Sunday come and gone, here are 19 rules to note when making your picks for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Rule 1: Take conference tournament week with a grain of salt

• 2021 Texas

• 2022 Iowa

• 2021 Ohio State

• 2024 Wisconsin

Where I am applying it this year: Purdue, Wisconsin

Rule 1A: Bid Stealers are an exception to this rule. Evaluate them normally

• 2021 Oregon State

• 2024 NC State

Where I am applying it this year: Nowhere

Rule 2: Pay attention to path

• 2022 Kansas

• 2021 Houston

• 2024 Alabama

Favorable Path this year: Michigan State, Houston, Michigan

Tough Path this year: Duke, UConn

Rule 3: When having a tough time deciding on a game, ask yourself how big the coaching gap is (specifically scouting and in-game coaching)

• 2021 Iowa vs Oregon

• 2023 Memphis vs Florida Atlantic

• 2022 LSU vs Iowa State

• 2025 Memphis vs Colorado State

Where I’m applying it this year: UGA-SLU

Rule 4: Don’t you dare pick mid-majors to win against teams with a ton of length & athleticism

• Late 2010’s Florida State

• 2022 Vermont vs Arkansas

• 2023 Charleston vs San Diego State

• 2025 Maryland vs Grand Canyon

Where I’m applying it this year: Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, St. John’s

Rule 5: Write down a list of teams you think are seeded too high and too low and what they should really be and keep it next to you while filling out your bracket.

Too High: Purdue, Villanova, BYU, Georgia

Too Low: UCLA, Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Miami (FL)

Rule 6: Don’t sell yourself on players. Sell yourself on teams.

• 2021 Oklahoma State

• 2022 Wisconsin

• 2023 Purdue

Where I’m applying it this year: BYU, Texas Tech, Cal Baptist, Iowa

Rule 6A: Don’t convince yourself that a star has a good supporting cast around him in the last two weeks before Selection Sunday.

Where I’m applying it this year: Also, BYU

Rule 7: Defense wins championships, but offense gets you there

• 2024 Alabama

• 2023 Miami

• 2021 UCLA

Where I’m applying it this year: I’m steering clear of this rule for the most part this year. All of the top teams in the sport are elite defensively and a lot of where this could apply with some lower-seeded teams does not this year.

Rule 8: You’re better off betting against a conference than on one

• 2019 ACC

• 2021 Big Ten

Where I’m applying it this year: Are all the Big 12 title top teams that elite? I don’t trust Kansas, BYU or Texas Tech. I think the same can be said about the top of the Big Ten. Are Nebraska, Purdue and Illinois that trustworthy at this point?

Rule 9: Beware of teams you like matching up early and on one day scouts with unique teams.

• Press Virginia

• Syracuse zone

• Alabama math ball

Where I’m applying it this year: Utah State vs Villanova, Alabama vs Texas Tech

Rule 10: Don’t fall in love with teams that would be satisfied with their season before the tournament begins

• 2021 Illinois

• 2021 Alabama

• 2023 Marquette

• 2022 Auburn

• 2025 St. John’s

• 2025 Louisville

Where I’m applying it this year: Nebraska (worried this will also apply to SLU and Santa Clara)

Rule 11: Everybody is a choker until they aren’t

• 2019 Virginia

• 2024 Purdue

• 2021 Baylor

Where I’m applying it this year: Arizona to win the title

Rule 12: You can allow yourself to be talked into big-time programs that underachieved

• 2021 UCLA

• 2022 UNC

• 2015 Michigan State

• 2016 Syracuse

Where I’m applying it this year: I don’t believe I am applying this anywhere unless you count UCLA going to the Sweet 16. On the pod, I also gave out my boldest prediction for this tournament: Kentucky can win the Midwest region. A healthy Louisville could also be applicable.

Rule 13: Before conference tournaments start, write down a list of teams you think can win the national championship.

My list from last week: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida

Rule 14: It’s perfectly fine to pick a somewhat lower seed to get to the Final Four, but make sure that team can win four games in a row first

• Why bid stealers are so relevant

• Applies a lot for 4-6 seeds

Where I’m applying it this year: As I have said time and time again this year, this is one of the strongest years at the top of the sport. My final four includes two 1 seeds, a 2 seed and a 3 seed. This does not apply.

Rule 15: Don’t predetermine your first round upsets before you see their matchups

• 2023 Oral Roberts

• 2024 McNeese State

• 2022 Vermont/South Dakota State

Where I’m applying it this year: I love UNI, but despite a tough pack line defense, I don’t think they will score enough to beat St. John’s. I am also a big fan of this Akron team, but it’s tough to see them winning what will be a fun shootout with Texas Tech. South Florida is a popular upset pick (and good team), but Louisville has fared quite well this season against teams it is better than.

Rule 16: You know the teams you don’t like. Don’t pick a team to go far just because of the number next to their name

• 2022 Auburn

• 2024 North Carolina

• 2021 Kansas

Where I’m applying it this year: Purdue (2nd round exit), Nebraska (2nd round exit).

Rule 17: The reason you want to pick a play-in team to win is more because of the first-round opponent than it is the play-in team

• 2021 UCLA (I picked Michigan State)

• 2022 Notre Dame (I picked Rutgers)

• 2023 Pitt (Picked them)

• 2024 Colorado (didn’t pick a play in winner that year)

Where I’m applying it this year: I thought Texas would beat NC State and was taking the winner to beat a struggling BYU team, regardless. Texas is a tougher matchup in my opinion for the Cougars, but I would’ve taken the Wolfpack, too.

Rule 18: Stop picking teams to win their second round game before they win their first.

Where I’m applying it this year: I don’t think this applies for me this year. There isn’t a team seeded 4 or lower that I was rushing to get into the Sweet 16. Take your time with each matchup, everyone!

Rule 19: Don’t fall for the Vontae Mack theory

Do not. Absolutely do not. Guarantee anything in your mind before you see a bracket.

Where I’m applying it this year: The one area I have had a problem with this rule for this year is that I see no team that can beat Houston in the bottom half of the South Region.

Saint Mary’s doesn’t have the athletes. Houston’s guards and their ability to take care of the ball should be okay against Texas A&M. Illinois is talented, but they don’t have elite individual defenders to contain the Houston backcourt. Those are the 3 most likely matchups after round 1. Houston also gets to play the regional in Houston. Maybe there is something I am missing, but if there is anything I am guaranteeing, it’s the Cougars getting to the Elite 8.