March Madness Hot Takes

By Jonathan Lidskin

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I tend to take my March Madness bracket a little too seriously. When you watch and talk about the sport as much as I do, it is hard not to take it seriously. Sam Federman and I have done 98 podcasts this year and counting. We’ve talked about nearly every team in this field at length. Just for a second, I want to take a step back. This is the best time of the college basketball season, but it is also the most chaotic time of the season. The greatest postseason in sports produces some of the most fond memories I have in my life.

So let’s only take this kind of seriously for a little while, and let’s try to use our imagination. I have five hot takes for this season’s NCAA Tournament. Only one of these will be reflected in my bracket, and no, this is not me hedging my picks. These are simply some things I can see happening if/when the madness starts to unfold. Let’s get into it.

#1: Only 1 double-digit seed wins a game, and 0 make the Sweet 16

This is actually something that will be reflected in my bracket. I know what you’re thinking. “Jonathan, it’s not really bold to not pick upsets”. Here’s where I disagree: In the 2020’s, there have been five NCAA Tournaments. On average, 6.8 double-digit seeds advanced out of the first round in that span. 1.4 10 seeds have advanced in the past five tournaments, as well including at least one from each tournament.

I have 0 10 seeds advancing this year and just one 11 seed. That would be Texas, which knocked off NC State in the first four last night. If you parlayed every double-digit seed losing in the first round except for Texas, you’re looking at odds of around 51-1. That does not include Tennessee’s game against the winner of Miami (OH) and SMU. Even in a year where the top teams are really strong, the chance of little to no madness is extremely unlikely.

#2: AJ Dybantsa breaks the NCAA Tournament individual game scoring record since 2000

I’m going to tie these first two together (sort of). In an Elite 8 loss to Virginia in 2019, Carsen Edwards scored 42 points. It is the most points scored since 2000 in an NCAA Tournament game. On Thursday, I think has the chance to break that against Texas. 

This is a Texas team that is not a good defensive team. They ranked 95th in adjusted defense efficiency and 157th in effective field goal % defense. It’s not just the Texas defense that has sparked this. Richie Saunders' injury has only increased the usage for a ball-dominant player. Before the Saunders injury, Dybantsa had a usage rate of 32.1. Dybantsa’s usage rate since Saunders got hurt is 35.8! That places him 11th in the country in that span, and none of the 10 players above him are playing in the NCAA Tournament.

What I do believe about this take is that if Dybantsa breaks the record, I still think BYU can lose. I’m picking Texas to win the game, and the Longhorns have not been playing tremendous basketball either, but they play good enough offense to overcome an outburst like I think Dybantsa could have.

#3: Clemson beats Florida in the 2nd Round

Individual game hot takes are always going to be a little more likely than general takes, but this is one that I haven’t seen anyone take in their bracket. Clemson lost 5 of their final 7 games to close out the regular season and then got hit by the injury bug when Carter Welling went down with a season-ending injury. However, I have more questions about the Gators than some of the other one-seeds, and I think Clemson poses as a sneaky tough matchup.

Florida lost four games in non-conference and as much as we like to remember what has happened recently, the NCAA Tournament operates more like a non-conference game than a conference game. The Gators also won the glass battle against good rebounding teams in some of those four games. While Clemson profiles as closer to an average rebounding team without Welling, I think they can do enough so that it is not the difference in the game.

Now, if Clemson isn’t getting killed in the margins, their slow pace could give problems to a Florida team that likes to get up and down. Will it take some shooting luck? Sure. But we know that the Florida guards could go cold and shoot them out of a game or shoot a team back into a game. The Tigers will have to get past an Iowa team with one of the best point guards in the nation to see this Florida team, but if they do, I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Clemson hung around and beat the 1 seed in the South region.

#4: The Big Ten gets zero teams in the Elite 8

I want to get this out of the way first. I have two Big Ten teams in the Final Four. However, the Big Ten has been underwhelming in March for quite some time at this point, and there’s a chance we could see the trend continue.

So what would have to happen here? First of all, the Big Ten has two teams in the top two seed lines. So, just by seedline favoritism, Michigan and Purdue would have to get knocked out early. Purdue had a great Big Ten Tournament, winning four games in four days after a rough patch to close the season. Michigan has been one of the most dominant teams this sport has had to offer this year. However, they have certainly had moments of vulnerability, especially in the Big Ten Tournament.

Where this gets tricky is that the Big Ten has three additional top-four seeds. Illinois, Michigan State and Nebraska. I love Illinois and Michigan State’s first weekend draws, but both could face super difficult Sweet 16 matchups with MSU possibly seeing UConn in Philly and Illinois drawing a tough Houston team in Houston. Nebraska has not closed strong at all, so I am not entirely worried about them getting to the Elite 8, especially with Florida standing in their way if they get through the first weekend.

Lower seeds could also mess this up. Wisconsin has looked fantastic against high-level competition this year and definitely has the potential to knock off both Arkansas and Arizona. Plus, UCLA was surging over the final month. A healthy Bruins team could meet MSU in the Sweet 16 and ruin this whole thing. Other Big Ten teams include an Ohio State team that is strong offensively, and Iowa, led by a terrific point guard.

#5: Kentucky wins the Midwest Region and reaches the Final Four

We have Rule 12 for a reason. 2014 Kentucky, 2015 Michigan State, 2016 Syracuse, 2021 UCLA, 2022 UNC. All big-time programs. All had underwhelming regular seasons. All seeded 7 or lower in the tournament. All made the Final Four. This tournament is unpredictable, but sometimes it is as simple as talent takes over.

This is not something I am picking in my bracket as I really like this Iowa State team that Kentucky would see in the second round. Santa Clara is also a very formidable opponent in the first round, and the Broncos have an NBA prospect at center.

Let’s make some comparisons for this Kentucky team. This Kentucky team has two ball-dominant guards who are not fantastic shooters (Oweh and Aberdeen). A big who profiles as a good rebounder, great shot blocker and has solid touch around the rim (Moreno). A low-usage bigger wing who is the team’s best defender and can guard multiple positions (Dioubate). You know who that sounds like? It sounds like RJ Davis, Caleb Love, Armando Bacot and Leaky Black. We’re just missing the Brady Manek component to this. Can that be Collin Chandler? Can it be Andrija Jelavic (probably not)?

Here’s the point I’m trying to make: Kentucky is still talented. If they shoot it better and some breaks go their way, why should we count them out?